The natural order of peace
"This is quite a grim picture for the U.S. Negative feelings about Bush are high and are generalizing to the American people who re-elected him. And support for contributing troops to Iraq is nowhere to be found."
Steven Kull, director of the Program on International Policy Attitudes
An interesting survey was carried out by the Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) and GlobeScan for the BBC World Service (www.pipa.org). Some 21,953 people in 21 countries were asked whether Bush Junior's re-election was positive or negative for peace and security in the world. On average, across all countries, 58 percent said that Bush's re-election was negative. Only in three countries did a majority see Bush's election as positive: the Philippines (63 percent); India (62 percent); and Poland (44 percent).
When asked how Bush's election has affected their feelings toward the American people, on average 42 percent said it made them feel worse towards the American people, while 25 percent said it made them feel better.
Only in three countries most said that it has had no effect on their feelings: Russia (66 percent), Japan (62 percent), and Poland (55 percent).
Asked how they now feel about contributing troops to Iraq, not a single country had a majority in favor. On average, 70 percent were opposed. Even in the Philippines and Poland, countries that had expressed positive feelings toward Bush and have contributed troops to the operation in Iraq, the majority was opposed (Philippines, 58 percent, Poland, 60 percent).
Importance of peace
This negative attitude towards Bush Junior and the American people is occurring at a time of high levels of optimism about the future. According to Investors' Intelligence, the levels of bullishness are at historical extremes, even higher than in 2000 when most of the equity markets peaked. Yet it would appear that a mix of military adventurism and millennial theological politics is beginning to make a lot of people rather uncomfortable.
A central hypothesis of Elliott Wave Theory and Socionomics (www.socionomics.com) suggests that changes in social mood power economic, social and historical events. Economic activity, the types of laws that we have and even outbreaks of war are not the causes of social-mood change but the result of changes within it. The stock market can be seen as a thermometer of that social mood. When optimism prevails, it rises; when pessimism rules, it falls.
In other words, our herding instinct produces collective action that works. Our collectives are the essence of social order and civilization but only when they are voluntary-such as families, communities, social and religious groups and enterprises. When collectives are imposed, then they fail.
This is why trade, without artificial obstacles and subsidies, and market forces, untainted by a plethora of rules and regulations, are so important for world peace.
Peace is the natural order of things when there is interdependence between different collectives. And this state of existence will be attained, eventually. Jacob Bronowski's (1908-1974) The Ascent of Man will continue and world peace and prosperity shall be attained. But not just yet.
Perversity of power
Over the next few years we will have to pay homage to the business cycle and the Kondratieff Winter, a prediction of a 50-year cycle of economic catastrophe, as existing systems are destroyed and the misallocation of capital and power is liquidated through bankruptcies and unemployment.
These key pivotal points have occurred in the past when systems and institutions once seen as necessary for survival became perceived as parasites and tyrants. It happened to Rome; to the Roman Catholic Church; to Louis XIV of France and King George III of England; it happened to Napoleon; it happened to the British Empire, the Russian version of Communism and the American basketball team. It is now happening to the U.S.
On January 10, Pope John Paul II criticized the "arrogance of power" exemplified by America and its few allies. This climate of impunity exists when you have a messianic zeal and intolerance for the diversity of man and use overwhelming force to maintain parasitic relationships.
Repaying the debt
Thus, according to the National Intelligence Council, the CIA director's think tank, in their zeal to punish their ex-friends, the neo-conservatives of the U.S. have created a training ground for the next generation of "professionalized" terrorists.
But this is only one part of the equation. Within the economic sphere we have experienced an unprecedented level of collectivization, far larger than any communist envisaged. Pensions, investments, health care, mortgages and debt have all been collectivized.
All sorts of risk, especially financial risk, have been spread out so far that no one knows exactly how far they reach and just how interconnected they are. And the power is concentrated in fewer and fewer hands. We now have the ideal scenario for the butterfly to start to flap its wings and bring forth chaos.
The blame game
This is not a theoretical scenario; just like global warming it is no longer a matter for debate or denial. In the 2004 Financial Report of the United States Government the Treasury Department points to the fact that last year the net liabilities of the U.S. increased by $11 trillion to a total of $46 trillion. In one year debt has increased by an amount equivalent to the entire economic output, the GDP. To place this into perspective, $46 trillion amounts to a debt of almost $8,000 for every man, woman and child on the planet.
When the citizens of the world start paying for these excesses, then the social mood will turn very negative and anti-American feelings will reach new extremes. As the markets fall to new lows the era of The Waste Makers (Vance Packard, 1960) will begin to disintegrate.
In market terms we have had the worst start to the year since 1982, the year that the last bull market started. The difference between now and then is the levels of optimism, of debt, of excessive valuations and high insider selling. In 1982 everyone was scared. Now they are too confident.
On January 24, the Dow Theory sell signal was confirmed. Pretty soon we will be reminded, once again, that we are not lords of this world but only its children. Cycles repeat.
Steven Kull, director of the Program on International Policy Attitudes
An interesting survey was carried out by the Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) and GlobeScan for the BBC World Service (www.pipa.org). Some 21,953 people in 21 countries were asked whether Bush Junior's re-election was positive or negative for peace and security in the world. On average, across all countries, 58 percent said that Bush's re-election was negative. Only in three countries did a majority see Bush's election as positive: the Philippines (63 percent); India (62 percent); and Poland (44 percent).
When asked how Bush's election has affected their feelings toward the American people, on average 42 percent said it made them feel worse towards the American people, while 25 percent said it made them feel better.
Only in three countries most said that it has had no effect on their feelings: Russia (66 percent), Japan (62 percent), and Poland (55 percent).
Asked how they now feel about contributing troops to Iraq, not a single country had a majority in favor. On average, 70 percent were opposed. Even in the Philippines and Poland, countries that had expressed positive feelings toward Bush and have contributed troops to the operation in Iraq, the majority was opposed (Philippines, 58 percent, Poland, 60 percent).
Importance of peace
This negative attitude towards Bush Junior and the American people is occurring at a time of high levels of optimism about the future. According to Investors' Intelligence, the levels of bullishness are at historical extremes, even higher than in 2000 when most of the equity markets peaked. Yet it would appear that a mix of military adventurism and millennial theological politics is beginning to make a lot of people rather uncomfortable.
A central hypothesis of Elliott Wave Theory and Socionomics (www.socionomics.com) suggests that changes in social mood power economic, social and historical events. Economic activity, the types of laws that we have and even outbreaks of war are not the causes of social-mood change but the result of changes within it. The stock market can be seen as a thermometer of that social mood. When optimism prevails, it rises; when pessimism rules, it falls.
In other words, our herding instinct produces collective action that works. Our collectives are the essence of social order and civilization but only when they are voluntary-such as families, communities, social and religious groups and enterprises. When collectives are imposed, then they fail.
This is why trade, without artificial obstacles and subsidies, and market forces, untainted by a plethora of rules and regulations, are so important for world peace.
Peace is the natural order of things when there is interdependence between different collectives. And this state of existence will be attained, eventually. Jacob Bronowski's (1908-1974) The Ascent of Man will continue and world peace and prosperity shall be attained. But not just yet.
Perversity of power
Over the next few years we will have to pay homage to the business cycle and the Kondratieff Winter, a prediction of a 50-year cycle of economic catastrophe, as existing systems are destroyed and the misallocation of capital and power is liquidated through bankruptcies and unemployment.
These key pivotal points have occurred in the past when systems and institutions once seen as necessary for survival became perceived as parasites and tyrants. It happened to Rome; to the Roman Catholic Church; to Louis XIV of France and King George III of England; it happened to Napoleon; it happened to the British Empire, the Russian version of Communism and the American basketball team. It is now happening to the U.S.
On January 10, Pope John Paul II criticized the "arrogance of power" exemplified by America and its few allies. This climate of impunity exists when you have a messianic zeal and intolerance for the diversity of man and use overwhelming force to maintain parasitic relationships.
Repaying the debt
Thus, according to the National Intelligence Council, the CIA director's think tank, in their zeal to punish their ex-friends, the neo-conservatives of the U.S. have created a training ground for the next generation of "professionalized" terrorists.
But this is only one part of the equation. Within the economic sphere we have experienced an unprecedented level of collectivization, far larger than any communist envisaged. Pensions, investments, health care, mortgages and debt have all been collectivized.
All sorts of risk, especially financial risk, have been spread out so far that no one knows exactly how far they reach and just how interconnected they are. And the power is concentrated in fewer and fewer hands. We now have the ideal scenario for the butterfly to start to flap its wings and bring forth chaos.
The blame game
This is not a theoretical scenario; just like global warming it is no longer a matter for debate or denial. In the 2004 Financial Report of the United States Government the Treasury Department points to the fact that last year the net liabilities of the U.S. increased by $11 trillion to a total of $46 trillion. In one year debt has increased by an amount equivalent to the entire economic output, the GDP. To place this into perspective, $46 trillion amounts to a debt of almost $8,000 for every man, woman and child on the planet.
When the citizens of the world start paying for these excesses, then the social mood will turn very negative and anti-American feelings will reach new extremes. As the markets fall to new lows the era of The Waste Makers (Vance Packard, 1960) will begin to disintegrate.
In market terms we have had the worst start to the year since 1982, the year that the last bull market started. The difference between now and then is the levels of optimism, of debt, of excessive valuations and high insider selling. In 1982 everyone was scared. Now they are too confident.
On January 24, the Dow Theory sell signal was confirmed. Pretty soon we will be reminded, once again, that we are not lords of this world but only its children. Cycles repeat.
