The price of a French 'non'
Włodzimierz Cimoszewicz, the current Speaker of the Sejm and the man widely expected to be the ruling Democratic Left alliance's choice for President, has warned that France will "pay the political price" if it votes against the proposed EU Constitution on May 29.
Speaking at a meeting with the American Chamber of Commerce, Cimoszewicz said: "In a political sense it would be a very painful failure of Europe. A nation which will cause that kind of failure will pay for that - rightfully."
Polls show that French support for the treaty has plummeted recently due to dissatisfaction over current EU initiatives, such as the Services Directive and opening membership negotiations to Turkey.
"If the French people, at least some of them, are going to reject the European Constitution because they don't want to have Turkey in the European Union, it has no sense, because there is no logical linkage between the two issues," he said. "I hope that the French people will really think about the consequences of such a decision."
Poles are widely expected to approve the treaty when they vote on it later this year. They may never get the chance however, since the new Constitution must be approved by all member states to come into effect. If France rejects the agreement, the document will effectively be dead in the water.
That could slow Poland's entry into the eurozone. Last week Norbert Walter, an economist with Deutsche Bank, predicted that a no vote would lead to a wave of currency speculation and fiscal disarray in new member states. "This situation would postpone entering the eurozone by new member states," he told Rzeczpospolita, adding: "I assume that there will be a debate on the issue whose effect would be closing the eurozone to new entrants."
For Cimoszewicz, the international consequences of a French "non" are serious as well. "If that happens, first we'll send a message to the world but also to ourselves that we are not able to organize the Union; that we are not able to act united; that still national differences go too far; and that some European nations can reject something because of the reasons which are not really linked to the issue.
"It will be a mistake. If that happens I know what I will say publicly, but I will be happier if I don't have the chance to say that," he said.
Speaking at a meeting with the American Chamber of Commerce, Cimoszewicz said: "In a political sense it would be a very painful failure of Europe. A nation which will cause that kind of failure will pay for that - rightfully."
Polls show that French support for the treaty has plummeted recently due to dissatisfaction over current EU initiatives, such as the Services Directive and opening membership negotiations to Turkey.
"If the French people, at least some of them, are going to reject the European Constitution because they don't want to have Turkey in the European Union, it has no sense, because there is no logical linkage between the two issues," he said. "I hope that the French people will really think about the consequences of such a decision."
Poles are widely expected to approve the treaty when they vote on it later this year. They may never get the chance however, since the new Constitution must be approved by all member states to come into effect. If France rejects the agreement, the document will effectively be dead in the water.
That could slow Poland's entry into the eurozone. Last week Norbert Walter, an economist with Deutsche Bank, predicted that a no vote would lead to a wave of currency speculation and fiscal disarray in new member states. "This situation would postpone entering the eurozone by new member states," he told Rzeczpospolita, adding: "I assume that there will be a debate on the issue whose effect would be closing the eurozone to new entrants."
For Cimoszewicz, the international consequences of a French "non" are serious as well. "If that happens, first we'll send a message to the world but also to ourselves that we are not able to organize the Union; that we are not able to act united; that still national differences go too far; and that some European nations can reject something because of the reasons which are not really linked to the issue.
"It will be a mistake. If that happens I know what I will say publicly, but I will be happier if I don't have the chance to say that," he said.
