The Superman empire strikes back
By Chris Mularczyk
Prime Minister Leszek Miller has not lost his touch as a master in-fighter. He sensed the president's weakness inside the SLD and made exploiting that weakness the centerpiece of his political counter-offensive after the EU referendum.
It was no accident that first went the breaking of the promise to work towards holding early elections in 2004. This naive demand on the part of President Aleksander Kwaśniewski was positively hated by the vast majority in the SLD. Miller's reneging on that promise was exactly what the rank and file of the SLD wanted to hear. It gave them the prospect of two more years in which to rule the country and one more year during which they could decide on their future leadership.
Next was an all-out attack on Kwaśniewski's assumption that Miller's government does not have a majority in the Sejm. Miller's henchmen went into action and soon found enough Samoobrona defectors - fearful of an early dissolution and intervention by the public prosecutor - to ensure them victory. Sixteen deputies out of the 53 originally elected as Samoobrona candidates voted with the government in the vote of confidence in the Sejm. The only SLD deputy who rebelled against Miller was the left-wing Iza Sierakowska, affectionately known as "Stalin's nanny."
Just to rub it in, Kołodko was humiliated by having economic management taken away from his portfolio as his public finance reform package was shelved. Hausner, a potential threat to Miller, was neutralized by giving him the number-two position in the government and assigning him the impossible task of economic policy supremo. He will be lucky to last out the year.
Many commentators marvelled at the way Superman and his side-kicks defused Samoobrona and humiliated Andrzej Lepper. Since the 2001 elections, Lepper has lost 16 deputies who left his parliamentary grouping (out of an original 53). But even of the 37 who were still there on the Friday morning of the parliamentary vote of confidence, as many as seven failed to show up and one actually voted with the SLD! That means Lepper now has only 29 deputies who obey his orders.
Now, it may just be that this is all agreed between Lepper and Miller, as some conspiracy theorists claim. It is unlikely to be as simple as that. The SLD have for many years monitored Samoobrona and infiltrated its political structure. Samoobrona was always potentially a useful receptacle for protest votes and an ally in fighting the Polish right. Even more important, it was a vital counter-balance to the PSL in rural areas. Keeping Lepper alive as an alternative coalition partner and bogey-man to scare centrist voters into the SLD fold has to be an SLD objective.
Lepper has gained his own position and has of late been trying to sail an independent course. But last week's events show that he is not fully in control of his people, and this can only do him damage.
The downside of this for Miller could be that an alternative party of the left may begin to form in the next few months. The Samoobrona experience will be an encouragement for all those willing to have a go, as we can now see that there is an electorate out there looking for a populist force. The bad news for Miller is that the next one may not be as easy to control and counteract as the current one is.
Kwaśniewski has limped away to lick his wounds. Rather than visit the Sejm for the vote of confidence in his government, he went off to hide in sunny Croatia. Instead of trying to get ministers in this government who still listen to him to offer their resignations (Huebner, Hausner, Dąbrowski, Cimoszewicz) he just stated the Constitution does not give him any powers.
The vote of confidence was perfectly timed, bearing in mind that the following week Miller would have to face the Rywingate commission again. Winning the vote of confidence makes him that much stronger and takes the wind out of the sails of the opposition. The scandal is still garnering a great deal of media attention but some of the heat has been let out of the pressure cooker.
The confidence vote has considerably strengthened Miller and made it less likely that he will be challenged at the SLD Congress. His opponents are in disarray, lacking both organization and leadership. It seems that the SLD is willing to let Miller stay for a while longer. However, unless the economy improves and the corruption scandals recede, they may be forced to ditch him later. And now that the elections have been pushed back to their original date of 2005, they feel that time may still be on their side.
