The year of living dangerously

One year later, the party finds itself still struggling to cobble together a fractured coalition that will keep it in power. The party's war on corruption took center stage during the year, but what happened to its other election promises, and can PiS lay claim to Poland's current robust economic health?

Exactly one year ago, Law and Justice (PiS) woke up to find itself with its hands on the reins of power.

The party had sprung a surprise victory in the general elections, and although it did not enjoy an outright majority, it was safe in the knowledge that it was in a prime position to negotiate a coalition with the main opposition party, Civic Platform (PO).

The hope for many voters was that the two parties would form a conducive relationship that would give Poland solid leadership. PiS could concentrate on developing a country in line with the values it espoused during its election campaign, while PO could be relied on to steer the economy with a steady hand.

One year later, PiS is scrabbling around the parliamentary back benches to raise the support it needs to keep its tenuous hold on power intact, and maintain its shaky position atop a splintered coalition. If its fingernail-grip on the Sejm slips, snap polls could happen at the end of November, and the country will have to contend with its fourth election in a little over a year.

"This was a wasted year, a year of argument and conflict," said PO leader Donald Tusk, after PiS ended its rocky coalition with Self-defense (SO) last week. The past 12 months have been dominated by political bickering, and a year in power is not a long time to effect real, lasting change. However, PiS has managed to get a host of hefty legislation through parliament and the party is also taking credit for the country's healthy economic situation. Despite its claims, the main criticism leveled against PiS and the ruling coalition has been that it has neglected the economy.

Nothing doing

"The coalition has done nothing to deregulate the economy - the potential of the Polish economy has not been unlocked," Andrzej Sadowski, the vice president of the Adam Smith Research Center, told WBJ. When the government has tackled economic matters, analysts say it takes the form of state meddling.

"Every student knows that where there is a free market and civil society there is success, and where there is a state [in the market] there is a flop," says Dr Radosław Markowski, a political analyst from the Institute of Political Studies at the Polish Academy of Sciences (PAN).

Despite these complaints, after a year in government PiS can point to a healthy economic growth rate of over five percent. "GDP growth is surprisingly high even for many analysts," boasts Deputy Economy Minister Paweł Poncyljusz. He believes things will improve even more after the government creates what it sees as favorable conditions for the further growth of the economy.

"The economy is doing well by itself. But we as politicians must be interested in the surrounding environment of the economy," Poncyljusz said, explaining that in the the near future the economy will start to feel the effects of PiS' purging of the judicial, prosecution and policing spheres.

"We hope that soon if an entrepreneur goes to court, he will be sure that it will come to a verdict before the company goes bankrupt," the Deputy Minister claims.

Sadowski regrets that the government has moved so far away from the free-market policy of the early 1990s, and he says that PiS' idle attitude to the economy is partly responsible for the growth. "At least they are not doing anything that would worsen it," he says.

Foreign enemies

The government's foreign policy has also come under heavy criticism. PAN's Markowski claims that Polish foreign policy has taken two steps back. "We have managed to estrange all our neighbors in the past year," he claims. Poland's relations with its two largest neighbors - Germany and Russia - are a cause for major concern among opposition politicians. Deputy Speaker of the Sejm Bronisław Komorowski, from Civic Platform (PO), calls PiS' policy with regards to Germany "the most stupid possible. Germany is the key to most issues in the European Union." As for relations with Russia, "nothing has happened," the PO Deputy claims.

"The symbol of our relations with Moscow is the fact that the Polish President calls it a success that a Russian Foreign Minister will visit our country. This doesn't happen in international politics," Komorowski says.

PAN's Markowski goes even further by claiming that the current government helps Moscow carry out its strategic goals. "Russia wants to show the world that Poland is just irresponsible," he claims.

PiS officials see it differently. "Russia would like us to be another submissive state. Poland will not put on airs, but will act with its head high," PiS Deputy Tadeusz Cymański says. "We have to act wisely, logically, pragmatically and both the President and the Prime Minister do not lack these traits."

With regards to relations with Germany, Cymański says that recent visits there by the President, Prime Minister and Sejm Speaker Marek Jurek were a success. "One can speak of a crisis, but to call it a fiasco or a catastrophe, one must have a lot of bad will indeed," he says.

Domestic struggles

In its first year in power, PiS has been accused of focusing on ideological conflicts and hounding its political rivals at the expense of good government. But the ruling party doesn't see this as a failure. Cymański claims that PiS is the first party to strike the 'clique' at its roots. "The attacks aimed at PiS reassures me of this. We have hit the clique and there is a reaction," he claims.

"The connections between old secret services, business circles and politics is not fiction, but a reality," Cymański adds, pointing to the Central Anti-corruption Bureau (CBA) as the tool to sever those unhealthy links.

Sadowski is unconvinced: "The only way to curb corruption is to restore economic freedom," he says, claiming that corruption results from an excess of state involvement.

An increased state presence has defined the last 12 months on the Polish political scene. PiS views this as a symbol of order and says it will create the conditions that will help the party govern. Unsurprisingly, this has provoked the vitriol of the opposition.

"They are like the Bolsheviks. Until they have controlled the whole governing process, they won't start making any decisions," Markowski said. Over the last year, PiS has managed to take control of most government offices, which is natural after winning elections, but it has also attempted to wrest control of Constitutionally independent bodies, such as the Central Bank, the Constitutional Tribunal and even local governments, with the proposed changes to election law.

"PiS wants to centralize power, even if it limits the traditional mechanism of democracy," Komorowski claims.

On the upside

PAN's Markowski does see some positive aspects to the government's first year in power. "One must agree with many of Justice Minister Ziobro's ideas, such as taking away the cars of drunk drivers, increasing security on the streets, fighting corruption," he says. He also thinks that Ziobro's campaign against the Bar Association, which is often accused of corruption and nepotism, is positive. Markowski agrees that PiS has a great feel for the vox populi. "They know where the emotions lie," he says, pointing to the government's recent campaign to deal with corruption in Polish football.

Promises, promises

But what of PiS' promise to build three million flats in eight years? "We are not giving up on that goal, this is very ambitious, because this is a massive number," Cymański says. He confirmed the party's determination to carry out the program, "despite the fact that obstacles are being put on our path."

The fact that no apartment-building program has taken off doesn't worry experts. "It's a positive thing that they are not talking about the three-million flats any more, it shows that unrealistic slogans were quickly abandoned," Sadowski says.

PO's Komorowski also appreciates PiS' newfound pragmatism. "The only positive thing I can think of is the fact that they are defending the budget against increased spending and thus acting like a liberal party. This clashes with their pre-election slogans," the Sejm's Deputy Speaker said.

While PiS' pre-election promise of changing the tax rates to 18 and 32 percent will be postponed until 2009, the ruling party explains the move by its adherence to its policy of a solidarity state.

"Tax reform can only be introduced after estimates, after reflection … The reform will be a present to the rich, so it's natural that such a reform will have to be preceded by an improvement in the situation in the millions of households that are not so well off," Cymański explains.

Annual scorecard

PiS may have missed its window of opportunity to force through unpopular but necessary reforms to set the economy on the right track during its first year in government. The Adam Smith Research Center's Andrzej Sadowski doubts whether this government will be able to "unlock" the economy. "Usually unpopular decisions should be made within six to nine months after the elections, before the interest and lobbying groups regain their strength," he said.

Even PiS officials agree that not everything is perfect. "Our record is not as we would like it to be," says Cymański. "We have started many undertakings, we have the reform of public finances ready, changes facilitating the absorption of EU funds - we are not standing with empty hands.

"God-willing, at the end of the term we will be able to present our report with our heads held high. Keep in mind that we have a few months of a very difficult coalition behind us," Cymański declares. Now, it seems, PiS has an even more difficult few months ahead.