TMS weekly FX Commentary
Both the balance itself (a surplus) and a 30% rise in exports year on year looked favourable, triggering some appreciation of the zloty. Despite this, however, the zloty closed in a weaker state. On Thursday and Friday the PLN was hit by news from South Africa, where interest rates were lowered - sending both the rand and other emerging market currencies down.
The next few days will see the release of yet more macro figures revealing the state of the Polish economy. On Monday July’s CPI will be published. Its rise is almost a sure bet, the only question is how big the move was? The median forecast is 4.7% year on year. Industrial output figures will be published too. It is expected to rise by almost 12% year on year. If July's industrial output rises by 12% or faster it will be a proof of Poland’s economic momentum. The last one will be retail sales. It is expected to be around 10% y/y, a little bit better than a month ago. If the fundamentals of the economy are solid and interest rates are likely to rise then the currency should appreciate.
www.tms.pl
The next few days will see the release of yet more macro figures revealing the state of the Polish economy. On Monday July’s CPI will be published. Its rise is almost a sure bet, the only question is how big the move was? The median forecast is 4.7% year on year. Industrial output figures will be published too. It is expected to rise by almost 12% year on year. If July's industrial output rises by 12% or faster it will be a proof of Poland’s economic momentum. The last one will be retail sales. It is expected to be around 10% y/y, a little bit better than a month ago. If the fundamentals of the economy are solid and interest rates are likely to rise then the currency should appreciate.
www.tms.pl
