To be continued...
A top screenwriter would not shy away from of such storylines. The main heroes - the Kaczyński twins - are cast in the roles of President and Prime Minister. In almost every episode of the series there are conspiracies, sudden twists in the action, appointments and dismissals from office and mutual accusations. Political "blood" floods the screen.
In the background private melodramas are played out - the President's daughter commits an ideological betrayal and starts a family with the son of an activist from the enemy political camp, the Prime Minister lives alone with his mother and a cat, the populists are accused of a major sex scandal, the minister for the secret services nearly loses his life to a malfunctioning bathtub, and for many episodes the mysterious suicide of an opposition politician, carried out in the presence of law enforcement officers, is not explained.
End of the first series?
The plot has become so convoluted that even the most loyal viewers of the series have become confused by it. In the case of the Central Anti-corruption Bureau (CBA) action at the Ministry of Agriculture, everyone accused everyone else, the coalition fizzled out, and scandals began to be played out among the most trusted members of the Kaczyński brothers' party, Law and Justice (PiS).
It may seem that the first series has now come to its final episode: In September the Polish parliament has to decide on the announcement of new elections. It's about time, as this soap opera has started to bore Polish society and even prime time does not guarantee good viewing figures. Unfortunately, whether the viewers want it or not - everything seems to indicate that the next series will not disappear from our screens.
Screenplay I:
No early elections
If there are no early elections, then the Kaczyńskis will have two options. The first of these is to once again invite the populists from Self-defense (SO) and the nationalists from the League of Polish Families (LPR) back into the government. Such a twist in the plot is possible despite the fact that recent episodes of the series have portrayed a huge personal conflict between the leaders of the three parties. SO and LPR have lost a considerable part of their electorate to PiS and they fear an electoral disaster. If, however, PiS decides to create a minority government and rule alone, it will face a very strong opposition in parliament. The consequences could be increasingly gloomy and tragic.
Screenplay II:
A coalition of the liberals and the left
Let us assume that there will be elections and two groupings of a liberal character - The Civic Platform (PO) and the Left and Democrats (LiD) jointly create a government. It would probably be the best outcome for the Polish economy, for social modernization and for the image of Poland internationally. Such a coalition could also introduce a whole series of much-needed social reforms - principally in the healthcare and education sectors. There is a problem in that such a coalition would face strong resistance from right-wing populists. In addition, the coalition's life could be made difficult by the necessity to work with President Lech Kaczyński, who would certainly ensure that criticism of the liberal government would strengthen the grouping led by his brother.
Screenplay III:
PO and PiS together
Such a series would be the most exciting, because there would be no end to quarrels and schemes. PO's voters are mostly well-educated people who live in large cities, well-off, successful in the job market, financially resourceful, open and tolerant. PiS's voters are mostly small-town and rural dwellers, not particularly current on economic and civilizational changes, poorly educated and intolerant.
Finding common ground between the interests of the two groups is almost impossible. The only thing uniting them would be the stadium in which the matches were played - the soap opera screenplay, unchanged for almost two years, in which the main role will continue to be played by the twin brothers.
Joanna Wóycicka is the former head of the foreign section of the Życie Warszawy and Życie newspapers and the former head of the foreign department at the Polish Press Agency (PAP)
