To bid or not to bid?
It has been estimated that the World Cup's contribution to German GDP will range from 0.1 to 0.3 percent. However, analysts expect that the tournament will have little impact on the country's real-estate market.
"The effects of an event like the World Cup will inevitably have a weaker short-term impact than the Olympic games, as the tournament is held in many cities, rather than just one," says Jones Lang LaSalle's (JLLS) head of reasearch in Germany, Helge Scheunemann.
"In the case of this year's World Cup in Germany, the investment costs are lower compared with former World Cup hosts because all the German host cities already had well-appointed stadiums before Germany was announced as a host," she explains
Still, though Germany's real-estate market is not expected to especially benefit from the World Cup, the country is also unlikely to record losses, as suffered by previous hosts Japan and Korea.
"Where Germany differs is that unlike Korea and Japan, the facilities being used are viable football stadiums in their own right. As a result, the money spent on the upgrade makes business sense and will not leave huge empty stadiums after the event, as in the case with previous World Cups," said the lead director in JLLS' European strategic consulting team, Katie Kopec.
Analysts expect that the smaller the city holding World Cup games, the greater economic benefit it will receive. Thus, the biggest beneficiaries in terms of GDP growth will probably be Gelsenkirchen (3.2 percent estimated GDP growth), Kaiserslautern (2.4 percent) and Leipzig (1.6 percent).
It is also more likely for the real-estate markets of these towns to benefit from the World Cup, though the impact will be indirect, and will result more from marketing activities. Berlin, Hamburg and Munich are expected to benefit the least.
Ultimately, though, soccer is a huge business. "The television rights for this year's tournament have earned FIFA over $1.23 [zł.3.89] billion while the gate receipts are estimated at a further $100 [zł.316] million," says a JLLS report.
Experts believe this, coupled with obvious benefits such as infrastructure improvement, urban regeneration and tourism promotion, should convince Poland strengthen its efforts in bidding for future World Cups.
In the meantime: "High expectations for real-estate investment have unfortunately not been matched by the performance of the Polish team on the pitch. Perhaps a longer process of integration will bring out the best of the team," JLLS' experts and football fans suggest.
