U.S. election preview: who's better for us?

George Bush
In many ways, Bush has had a bigger impact on American foreign policy than any president since Harry Truman. He abrogated the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) treaty with Russia and refused to resubmit a Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty to Congress. Bush junked some additions to the post-1945 system, such as the Kyoto accords on climate change and the International Criminal Court. He began the process of transforming America's Cold War troop deployments, promising to withdraw 60,000-70,000 troops from bases overseas so that they could be more quickly deployed from stations at home. He rejected NATO's implied willingness to go to war alongside America in Afghanistan after September 11, 2001, preferring the "coalition of the willing" to traditional alliances.

In Iraq, Bush implemented a doctrine of prevention: in an age of global terror, self-defense meant acting alone and preemptively, if necessary. Working through alliances-if that meant waiting for others-could be suicide.

John Kerry
John Kerry has a quite opposite view to George Bush. By acting unilaterally and neglecting America's traditional alliances, he claims, the administration has undermined American security. Because some of America's most important allies refused to take part in the invasion or occupation of Iraq, he says, American soldiers are less safe than they otherwise would have been. Kerry promises that, if elected, he would go to war only as a last resort. He also argues that diplomatic indifference has let problems fester in the Middle East, North Korea and elsewhere.

Kerry says he would work to rebuild American diplomacy. He would call a summit meeting with European leaders to heal transatlantic wounds, would restart negotiations on the Kyoto treaty and the protocol to the Biological Weapons Convention, and says he would aim to strengthen the non-proliferation regime through a "broader international framework." He has criticized planned troop withdrawals as undermining long-standing alliances.

Toni Housh, investment and political/economic consultant, member of the board of the American Chamber of Commerce
"It is difficult to predict which presidential candidate would better serve Polish business. One cannot base his/her opinion on campaign slogans simply because they do not always translate into actions. Candidates make promises in order to obtain as many electoral votes as possible. Thus it is difficult to predict which aspects of their policy will become a priority.
"Recently, it has been clear that both candidates are starting to pay a little more attention to Poland. However, their main focus is on the Polish-Americans who will cast their votes next week.
"Business is business and it will stay like that regardless of who wins. Therefore, drastic changes in the American policy towards Poland should not be expected."

Roman Rewald, U.S.-qualified attorney and partner at Weil Gotshal & Manges
"Both candidates are aware that Poland is an important and dedicated ally to the United States. President Bush has often mentioned Poland's involvement in Iraq while Senator Kerry has recently recognized significant contributions from Poland towards the improvement of transatlantic relations. However, one cannot expect a major shift in Polish-American relations following the announcement of the election results.

"Usually the new President-if the old one is not re-elected-continues the politics of his predecessor. When George W. Bush took over the presidency after Bill Clinton, despite their very different views, economic policy towards Poland did not change.
"Generally, presidential elections have no direct impact on business relations with a particular country."

Ron Nawrocki, managing director, BI Solutions (Business Intelligence Solutions)
"It is quite clear that issues of Poland are more relevant to President Bush than they are to Senator Kerry. After all, Kerry forgot to mention Poland as an American ally when he was discussing the war in Iraq.

"Recently Senator Kerry declared that he will try to work out the "visa problem" for Poles. However, this appears to be an empty promise due to several reasons. First, visa laws can only be changed by Congress and Congress is controlled by the Republicans. Hence, even if Kerry wins the election, it will not be up to him to change the relevant legislation. Second, Poland has been violating visa laws for years; thus, it is unlikely for Congress to make changes for Poland's benefit. We must also remember that Poland is not the only EU country that is required [to have] visas to enter the United States.

"It is in the interest of Poland for a candidate to win who will help Poland to obtain a large number of contracts in Iraq. If Kerry wins the office, the entire administration will change. This will result in new people obtaining high-profile jobs and thus it will delay the entire contracting process significantly.

"At the beginning of his presidency, George W. Bush signed the Trade Promotion Authority that gave him some influence in trade matters, which normally are entirely controlled by Congress. While in office, President Bush signed 12 treaty agreements, currently 10 are negotiated and 10 are being put on the table. Senator Kerry is not planning on signing the Trade Promotion Authority; thus, one can assume that trade will not be his priority.
"When dealing with terrorist threats, Senator Kerry will follow Clinton's style. Such style is comprised of multilateral talks, negotiations, and international cooperation. Although this may sound like a good approach, in reality it leaves terrorists with no punishment and gives them more room to act.

"Overall, Republicans are businesspeople. They are pro-business, pro-investment and pro-Poland. Since President Reagan's administration, Republican presidents have been often visiting this country. For Democrats, on the other hand, Poland has never been a priority."

Robert Koński, country manager, Euronet Worldwide Poland
"Since President Reagan's administration Republicans, while in the White House, have generally kept a lot closer relationship with Poland than the Democrats did. President Bush, for instance, appears to be pro-Polish and if he stays in office we are likely to see Polish-American relations tighten and issues such as the visa requirement for Poles resolved. That cannot be really expected if Senator Kerry becomes the new President.

"For European-American relations, however, Kerry appears to be a better choice due to the fact that he prefers to take a multilateral approach in conflict resolution as well as to cooperate with European countries such as France and Germany. Nevertheless, this does not translate into improvement of Polish-American relations. In reality, it may shift American focus from Poland to the other European countries, which is something Poland would like to avoid because it likes to be portrayed as the main American ally in Europe."