US elections: The primaries, from Poland
In keeping with the US tradition of "bigger, louder, flashier," this week heralds one of the most frenetic phenomena in the American political cycle: "Super Tuesday." A record-breaking number of states scheduled either primaries or caucuses this Tuesday, putting over 50 percent and 40 percent of the delegates needed to secure the Democratic and Republican nominations, respectively, up for grabs on one day. If the race isn't effectively decided this week, its resolution won't be long in the coming.
Playing "What if?"
For the international community, the primaries offer the chance to play "What if?" This is a popular game, in which US presidential candidates' merits and shortcomings are weighed against individual nations' interests to find the best match.
Last time around Poland had recently gambled on Bush, joining his "Coalition of the Willing" in the invasion of Iraq. The country was still hoping to reap the rewards of its military friendship with the US, particularly entry into the Visa Waiver Program, so it made sense for it to keep its fingers crossed for the Republicans. Despite having had four more years with President Bush, however, Poland has seen little more than "atta-boy" pats on the head from the US. The lesson here - "What if?" may be amusing, but the most obvious choice may not be the best.
In the red corner
The 2008 race requires a more nuanced examination of the contenders, especially as some have limited foreign diplomacy experience. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, for example, has focused largely on domestic issues, playing to his own strengths. He's also been accused of "flip-flopping," and his positions on the issues appear somewhat mutable. Romney would be softer on Russia than the other relevant Republican, Senator John McCain of Arizona, but Romney is likely to follow the party line on the missile shield, at least at first. His stance on immigration is far from hard-line.
McCain, for his part, has always stressed his military experience and presented himself as "strong on defense." He has also been a fierce critic of Russian President Putin - in an October 9 debate, he called Putin a "bully" and accused him of manipulation through oil policy. In another debate, he amusingly commented, "When I looked into Mr. Putin's eyes, I saw three letters: a K, a G and a B." McCain has expressed support for the missile shield and is relatively "soft" on immigration by Republican standards.
In the blue corner
Of the Democrats, New York Senator Hillary Clinton has visited Poland no less than twice in the past, so she's at least seen the country. Her tag-team partner, former President Bill Clinton, has derided Bush's missile shield plan, but Hillary has been relatively quiet about it. Some people think she could be tough on Russia, though her diplomacy would be likely practical and calculated rather than ideology-based, like McCain. Clinton's position on immigration is carefully worded and in essence meaningless, especially as she has a sparce voting record on the issue.
Finally, Senator Barack Obama of Illinois represents, like Clinton, a state with a large Polish population. He's got more political experience than Romney, albeit mostly at a lower level, but considerably less than Clinton or McCain. Relatively untested at foreign policy, it's uncertain how well he'd stand up to Russia, and missile shield plans could evaporate under his watch. On the other hand, he issued a formal letter of welcome during President Kaczyński's 2007 visit to the US, listing six concise ways to improve US-Polish relations. One of these was admittance to the Visa Waiver Program.
Rule no one out
None of the above would favor Poland outright, but Romney seems the weakest candidate in terms of Poland's interests. McCain looks strongest, at least in terms of confronting Russia and its oil politics, but his age and reputation for crankiness could make him difficult to get along with.
Others from the primary race have not been mentioned here either because they aren't true contenders or have already dropped out. They shouldn't be disregarded altogether, however, at least not yet. McCain has rebounded eight years after his humiliating 2000 defeat, for example. And there's always the vice presidential nomination - anybody who thinks the VP can't influence policy should take a good, hard look at Dick Cheney.
