What a difference a week makes

By Mirko Kaupat

It became quite clear last week that Prime Minister Leszek Miller would try to use a positive vote in the EU referendum to strengthen his position and thus help his government survive its tidal wave of scandals, even though he had previously declared that the referendum was by no means an assessment of the government's work. But no one expected Miller to take the bull by the horns as aggressively as he did.

Actually, it was the president's turn to take the next step. Aleksander Kwaśniewski called for political negotiations right after the referendum, inviting all pro-European parties to his palace to discuss the country's political future. And he put Miller under pressure by demanding the formation of a majority government as soon as possible.

A meeting with the president was scheduled for Monday night, but Miller went public prior to it with an onslaught of new guidelines and proposals. He announced his intention to delegate responsibility for coordination of economic policy to Jerzy Hausner, the economy, labor and social policy minister. And he argued in favor of a flat-rate tax, quite an unpleasant surprise for many within his party, the SLD, which has always condemned such ideas. The prime minister knew that these moves would force Finance Minister Grzegorz Kołodko to resign, and so he did, on Wednesday.

But Miller's most important move was to announce a parliamentary vote of confidence in his government to prove that he still enjoys majority support in the Sejm. If he failed, he would no longer be prime minister and head of the SLD, he declared. Incidentally, he told his party that he intends to stay for the full election period until the middle of 2005.

The president was disarmed. His ongoing talks became meaningless, his agreement with Miller about accelerated elections in 2004 a thing of the past. Kwaśniewski could do nothing but admit that the vote of confidence would show if the government is backed by a majority or not. "1-0 for the Prime Minister" wrote one commentator. The Polityka weekly, referring to the blockbuster movie Matrix Reloaded, dubbed the developments Miller's Reloading.

The rest of the week was a flurry of predictions on the possible outcome of the parliamentary vote. And even though he won, it is pretty clear that Miller still doesn't have a stable majority. Only with the support of some independent parlamentarians and one Samoobrona rebel was Miller able to win. And even in his own party many were reluctant to vote for their government. In the final parliamentary debate, for example, SLD members criticized the flat-rate tax proposal. Some openly admitted that they only supported the prime minister because of party discipline and threats of expulsion from the parliamentary club.

So the question of whether the current government has a majority will appear again, when the next important matter needs to be decided.