What effect will an oil price hike have on the economy?

According to analysts record high oil prices might mean that the war in the Middle East is unavoidable. It is expected that during the first days of the conflict oil the prices might fly up to $60-$70 per barrel. This could mean gasoline and diesel fuel prices would rise to over zl. 4 and zl. 3.5 respectively. National oil reserves stood at 50 days in 2002. "We import oil from Russia, not from the Middle East. The increase should be lower than expected international oil price fluctuations," believes Michal Buczynski from DM Millenium. Analysts expect that after the first few days of the war, fuel prices should substantially drop, while in the second half of 2003 they should fall to below current levels. (Puls Biznesu, pp. 1, 12, 14) M.M.