Where to, Poland?
Polish politics finds itself at a crossroads - will there be early elections, another coalition or another stability pact-like arrangement with a minority government? The answer will have a tremendous impact on Poland's instability-weary business community. WBJ examines the various paths Polish politics could take, and asks the experts what the current situation means for the country and the future of its business.
After the recent twists and turns in Polish politics - notably the breakup of the ruling coalition and infamous 'Begergate' hidden-camera controversy - Poles appear sick and tired of the current parliament. According to a recent poll conducted by the research company Gfk Polonia, 59 percent of Poles favor early elections. At the same time, support for the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) has fallen dramatically. Gfk's poll gives PiS 20 percent of the vote if the elections were held today, while TNS OBOP shows the level of support for the Kaczyński brothers' party at 22 percent. Perhaps even more significant, support for PiS' arch-rivals, Civic Platform (PO), was declared by the polls to be at 36 and 34 percent respectively.
This week opposition parties including PO and the Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) want the Sejm to vote on motions to dissolve the parliament and call early elections.
To vote or not to vote?
With PO's advantage over PiS in the polls the largest in this parliament's term, the free-market party's leaders strongly favor early elections. "There is no guarantee in politics, but there is a huge probability now that things will change after new elections," Deputy Speaker of the Sejm Bronisław Komorowski from PO says. He underlines that such a difference in support for both parties makes the argument that "nothing will change" invalid.
However, the decision whether we will cast our ballots earlier lies in the hands of the Peasant's Party (PSL). Currently below the five percent threshold according to polls, the party would struggle to make it to Sejm again if elections came. The idea of PSL entering the government is tempting for both the party and the ruling PiS, which is currently stuck with a minority government again. PSL's leader Waldemar Pawlak has offered all the parties in parliament a "pact of good will" until the end of the year. "Let's give ourselves time to think over what's most important for the country - 90 days to deal with what's most important for the people," Pawlak said.
One of the party's top figures, Marek Sawicki, explains that the "pact of good will" doesn't rule out coalition talks. "In order to have any type of talks, it's a good idea to stop thinking about getting a majority for the government, but rather try to get the majority around the main problems of the country," he says. Many in his party, however, wonder whether teaming up with PiS will do the party any good.
For its part, PO doesn't want to hear about any pacts. "We do not plan to take part in any pacts with PiS," Komorowski declares. He claims that PSL just doesn't know whether it wants to support the government, go for early elections or join forces with PO.
Looking for a majority
PiS also isn't ecstatic about the idea of earlier elections. PiS deputy Tadeusz Cymański understands people's reactions as shown in the polls, but claims that political decisions can't always be influenced by surveys. "They are important, but they do not result in a decision. [If that were the case], we would have to change to Greek democracy," Cymański says. He claims that the most probable scenario is that new elections could result in yet another impasse and another couple of months of turmoil. "PO could conceivably get over 231 votes [over half of the seats in the Sejm] if elections take place, but even their sympathizers know that is wishful thinking," adds Cymański. He points out that before last year's elections, PO was also boasting that it might get a majority of the seats, and instead ended up losing.
"We still hope that we will be able to find a majority for the government," Cymański reveals. Regarding Pawlak's proposal of a pact of good will, he said that PSL hasn't specified whether the 90 days should be with a minority or a majority government.
But Sawicki stresses that the party is interested in debating the most burning issues, and not just the building of a majority. "If no agreement on the issues vital for the state can be found, then of course we favor early elections, there is no point in lingering. Dissolve the parliament and let the voters decide," he concluded.
Business weighs in
But what do the business circles think of the ongoing war in the Sejm? What do markets and entrepreneurs want? The president of Polish Confederation of Private Employers (PKPP) Lewiatan, Henryka Bochniarz, sees only one answer to the problem.
"New elections would bring something new because probably a few parties won't make it to the parliament. There could be a new arrangement," she claims.
Financial markets and investors view the prospect of early elections with mixed reactions. "In the short term, investing is risky because no one knows what the elections will bring," chief economist at Bank BPH Ryszard Petru explains. However, in the long-term, things could look quite different.
"If the election result reflects the latest polls - that means a clear victory for PO - then that would be good for the market," Petru adds.
Bochniarz favors new elections because she claims that only a new political arrangement can lead to change. "I'm sure that the division of votes among the two main parties would be different to today, which would make them look for a compromise," she predicts. She doubts that a minority government could bring anything positive. Nor is Bochniarz a fan of the idea of PSL joining the government. "I think that a PiS-PSL arrangement will be another distribution of posts and will not bring anything good," she claims.
"I'm afraid this would be a government of continuance, but what we need today is a government of change," says Bochniarz. The PKPP president points out that the government needs to reform public finances and make use of structural funds, because it may turn out that in 2007 Poland will have very limited access to them.
Petru also doubts whether this Sejm has any potential to implement reforms. "In this parliament the chances of carrying out any reforms are close to zero," he states. He added that elections give hope that the future Sejm would be more reform-oriented. "But PO would have to be the senior coalition partner," Petru said. Still, even that doesn't guarantee anything, since the President would be able to veto any government plans.
Options open
When asked about possible coalition partners if new elections take place and PO wins them, Komorowski doesn't want to rush to any declarations. "We will see who the voters choose," he says. In order not to repeat last year's mistake, he says there will be no declarations as to possible coalition partners. "We will consider all options," Komorowski said.
The president of Business Center Club (BCC), Marek Goliszewski, claims that if leaders of the main political parties could help the entrepreneurs and representatives of trade unions work out a social contract (encompassing the most urgent social and economic issues), then the elections, which are costly and which bring political rows and conflicts, should be postponed and a stable coalition would be better.
"But if the politicians can't sit down and talk about the most serious issues with employers and trade unions, then I'm afraid that elections would be better," Goliszewski said.
Starting from square one?
However, some believe that new elections would simply lead to yet another year of coalition building, distribution of posts, administrative changes - and not much else. The government has presented a new budget, which would most likely be revamped if a change in power occurs. A number of bills are being worked on. New elections could throw all of that out the window.
"If works were in process with regards to structural funds, then indeed new elections could postpone implementation or could halt the process. But we know that everything in Poland now is at a standstill," says Bochniarz.
But with no guarantee that momentum will build after early polls, the options for Poland's business community seem few and far between.
"Elections do not guarantee that things will change," says the BCC's Goliszewski. "But at least they give us some hope."
