Who's got it wrong?
By Aleksander Nowacki
You're at a party and the guy next to you stumbles and falls over. He struggles up to his feet and violently, if somewhat incoherently, accuses you of tripping him over. He is not drunk, he says, no way, it is in fact you who can't take your wine. He could do with a couple more, as he sees it, and won't let anyone dictate to him that he should slow down on the drink.
It is potentially quite an embarrassing scenario, but you can usually find your way out of it, frequently with the assistance of the host. The trouble begins when the guy happens to be the host and is in denial over his problem. It is even worse when the government acts this way - as it did for the better part of the last week.
"It's a perfect budget," said Prime Minister Leszek Miller, just as the złoty had hit its lowest ever level to the euro, and two attempts to shift government bonds had failed due to lack of demand. The market's reaction is "exaggerated," Miller explained, due to scare mongering by analysts. The poor government is simply besieged by those nasty types with degrees in economics, bent on destroying the country's credibility and chasing investment away.
Take Bogusław Grabowski, a Monetary Policy Council (RPP) member, who described the budget as "a scandal," the worst this country has had in ten years. The cheek of the man! Jerzy Hausner, the Deputy Prime Minister and the chief architect of the government's economic policy was quick to put Grabowski in his place. "He's the most irresponsible economist in the country," Hausner complained. "He criticizes the government." It is indeed hard to fathom why any economist should choose to engage in such subversive activity, instead of rallying behind the miracle workers in the cabinet. After all, as Leszek Miller said before being voted into power, if he promises that pears will grow on willow trees, then they will. And if economists can't see them, then that's their problem.
Andrzej Raczko, Finance Minister, gave a different account of the currency's plunge. Quite simply, "Financial markets are unstable." The minister's remarks, it is to be presumed, were the last nail in the market analysts' coffin. Not only are they bent on wreaking havoc and destruction, their analyses are quite superfluous. What is the point of studying market trends, when their instability is enough to explain away any exchange rate changes?
The conclusion to draw from all this is simple. Next year's budget - while perfect for the country and sure to bring about universal prosperity and much rejoicing in the streets of Warsaw and cities, towns and villages across the land - is going to bankrupt one professional group. Surely, investors will realize that economists' biased reports are designed not to give an accurate picture of reality, but to nullify the government's efforts to do this. And if not, then Miller, Hausner, Raczko and Co. will find a way to make them see sense. Or else...
