Will PiS play well with others?
Prime Minister Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz last week asserted that he would govern with a minority government, but did not emphatically rule out a coalition with the anti-reform Self-defense party.
He believes that it is "worth testing how the minority government works, and how it cooperates with various groups [in parliament] in carrying out its program."
Markets were at first jittery at the idea of a minority government, fearing the conservative-minded Law and Justice's (PiS) reform policies would be watered down by concessions to small, populist parties. However, as the dust settles and the new government takes the helm, investors seem to be giving PiS their tacit approval, in the hope that it sticks to its reform-oriented agenda.
"What we may find behind the smokescreen is a recipe for cautious modernization, sprinkled with skepticism over liberal economic reforms and the EU," said sociologist Andrzej Rychard.
Others see PiS' partnership with Self-defense as a means to consolidate further power within PiS' hands, but are unsure at what cost. To date PiS has followed a more conservative trajectory while at the same time espousing a few of the ideas of the anti-EU, anti-reform nationalists.
Towards a coalition
Self-defense has certainly not hidden its desire to form an official coalition with PiS. Ryszard Czarnecki, a Self-defense member of the European Parliament, stated in a Polish daily that his party is ready to begin coalition negotiations at any time. "The sooner the better," he said.
When asked to comment on Czarnecki's statement, Marcinkiewicz simply said: "I don't see any reason at the moment to look that far into the future," emphasizing that, his party and cabinet have "a very busy three months, we have a lot of work to do and want to gain parliamentary approval for this program."
Muddying the waters as to its true agenda, Marcinkiewicz recently spent two hours on air courting listeners of religious broadcaster Radio Maryja - well known for its nationalistic, anti-Semitic and anti-big business rhetoric. Yet at the same time Marcinkiewicz has publicly stated that he sees Tony Blair - the face of New Labour in Britain - as his political role model.
Anti-Communist roots
PiS, led by Lech Kaczyński and his twin brother Jarosław, ran their election campaign on the promise of a new start. They are convinced that Poland is being held hostage by a network of businesses, politicians and the secret service, who have handicapped the justice system and the economy.
The party believes that by including the fringe parties, they can incorporate those who have been marginalized by 16 years of corruption and tough reforms. Analysts suspect that in doing so they aim to slowly win the approval of the fringe party's supporters, creating a support base that spans the political spectrum, from the populist to the moderates, to the center right.
Supply at a cost
In order to have its cabinet approved, PiS was forced to rely on support from Self-defense. That support was won by promises to boost social spending and keep a lid on the state budget. Self-defense also advocates limiting the independence of the central bank and tapping the foreign-reserve coffers to fund growth. However, these reserves will be crucial to Poland when it attempts to join the eurozone, a move that Self-defense opposes.
In fact Self-defense is fiercely anti-EU, calling for Poland to renegotiate its EU accession treaty in an effort to increase its agricultural quotas and subsidies. (Reuters)
MB
