Zbigniew Piekarski on The vicious cycle
'This is a moment when hope and history rhyme.' - Seamus Heaney
The whole edifice of Catholicism has been built upon one central belief, that of the death and resurrection of Jesus Christ. If you dispute the conviction that, after his crucifixion, Jesus rose from the dead and ascended into Heaven (taking his body parts with him), then you are definitely not a Catholic and will not find a place in the Catholic version of heaven.
Likewise, the whole edifice of the EU has been built upon one central belief, that it will improve the quality of life of 'Slavicus Normalus' and other tribes and bring peace and prosperity. The unavoidable increases in regulation, taxation and the cost of living are presently being ignored by unbridled euphoria, and raised expectations rule.
Unfortunately, events over the past few weeks have shown that most expectations will not be met and, as this happens, people will start to question the central belief and lose faith in their institutions.
The first expectation that has suffered is the one that armed troops can be used to assist a people of a different culture, language and religion to a new and better future - as defined by one's own culture, language and religion. Graphic evidence has emerged (despite a concerted effort at unparalleled press censorship) that the primary role of a soldier today is the same as it has been since time immemorial: to kill, torture, rape, pillage and plunder. Naturally, these skills are more easily honed when the natives are not similar in appearance to one's own troops (a practice particularly favored by the U.S. military). In addition, their training can be accelerated by the use of 'security consultants' who do not have to abide by any rules of engagement, and, if exposed, can easily be disowned. Skills at a premium are ones that are easily transferable and that can be used to persuade any population, including one's own.
The second expectation yet to be fulfilled consists of locating the stockpiles of chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons in a country located in the Middle East. Their possession in this geographical area has been declared to be illegal by those countries that already have the weapons but are located in different geographical zones. Obviously, the country at 33 00N and 44 00E (coordinates listed in the CIA World Factbook) hasn't got them. Maybe they can be found a mere 10 points further West at 31 30N and 34 45E in a country that is currently surrounding itself with a wall?
The expectation was that trade sanctions would have worked in Iraq, if they had been given sufficient time to produce the desired effect. They are still expected to work in Cuba and North Korea, as the children of those countries are not the recipients of humanitarian aid administered by the UN.
The 'Oil for Food Program' was the largest humanitarian operation ever, costing some $60 billion and lasting for over 6 years. This vast amount of money was expected to assist the children of Iraq. Unfortunately, Saddam Hussein's captured records implicate over 40 companies and top UN officials. They allegedly link the UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan and his son and the UN Assistant Secretary-General Benon V. Sevan, to a pay-off scheme in which some 270 prominent foreign officials skimmed billions of dollars and channeled them into private bank accounts. The corruption within the UN appears to be systematic and endemic, which may help to explain why countries on the UN Security Council were so indulgent toward Saddam, and so opposed to his removal.
The differences between expectations and reality in the whole Middle Eastern situation have become so serious that, for the third time in the history of the UK, retired senior British diplomats have warned the prime minister, Mr. Tony Blair, that the policies being pursued are doomed to failure. Similar warnings were given to Neville Chamberlain concerning his appeasement policy towards Hitler, and to Sir Anthony Eden before his ill-fated attempt to join France and Israel in 1956 and invade Egypt to stop Nasser from claiming the Suez Canal. Geo-political uncertainty is about to invade the news once again.
The markets have started to give their verdict as far as the World Economy is concerned. The Nasdaq 100 was down by over six percent, the largest weekly drop in two years, at a time when the talk centered on the floatation of Google, a company with less than $1 billion in revenue and fewer than 2,000 employees. The expectations are that its market value could be as high as $25 billion. (The Safeway grocery chain, with $34.8 billion in revenue and more than 200,000 employees, is valued at $10.3 billion). Expectations of easy pickings still reign supreme.
What we witnessed in the equity markets were just the preliminaries. The main event is still out there. The prerequisite processes that will lead to a waterfall decline, or a crash, have been set in motion.
As usual, commodities have led the way. In one day, Gold fell by 3.3 percent; Aluminum by 4.3 percent; Platinum by 4.4 percent; Copper by 5 percent; Silver by 5.9 percent; and Palladium by 8.7 percent when news emerged that the Bank of China had decided to restrict credit to slow their overheating economy. Only the price of oil stayed at its three and a half year high and at a level that will be very uncomfortable for the struggling economies of Europe. Germany, the purse of the EU, was forced to reduce its growth forecasts once again.
The Catholic faith and the EU may have been built on one central belief, but the Muslim has six fundamental obligations, which are: the acknowledgment of God; ritual prayers; the paying of alms; fasting during Ramadan; a pilgrimage to Mecca; and Jihad, or Holy War, in order to avenge injustice. The events of the past few weeks have increased the feelings of injustice in the minds of those that practice that faith wherever they reside - in their own countries or within the countries of the EU. And they have the oil. Shades of 1974? Cycles repeat.
The whole edifice of Catholicism has been built upon one central belief, that of the death and resurrection of Jesus Christ. If you dispute the conviction that, after his crucifixion, Jesus rose from the dead and ascended into Heaven (taking his body parts with him), then you are definitely not a Catholic and will not find a place in the Catholic version of heaven.
Likewise, the whole edifice of the EU has been built upon one central belief, that it will improve the quality of life of 'Slavicus Normalus' and other tribes and bring peace and prosperity. The unavoidable increases in regulation, taxation and the cost of living are presently being ignored by unbridled euphoria, and raised expectations rule.
Unfortunately, events over the past few weeks have shown that most expectations will not be met and, as this happens, people will start to question the central belief and lose faith in their institutions.
The first expectation that has suffered is the one that armed troops can be used to assist a people of a different culture, language and religion to a new and better future - as defined by one's own culture, language and religion. Graphic evidence has emerged (despite a concerted effort at unparalleled press censorship) that the primary role of a soldier today is the same as it has been since time immemorial: to kill, torture, rape, pillage and plunder. Naturally, these skills are more easily honed when the natives are not similar in appearance to one's own troops (a practice particularly favored by the U.S. military). In addition, their training can be accelerated by the use of 'security consultants' who do not have to abide by any rules of engagement, and, if exposed, can easily be disowned. Skills at a premium are ones that are easily transferable and that can be used to persuade any population, including one's own.
The second expectation yet to be fulfilled consists of locating the stockpiles of chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons in a country located in the Middle East. Their possession in this geographical area has been declared to be illegal by those countries that already have the weapons but are located in different geographical zones. Obviously, the country at 33 00N and 44 00E (coordinates listed in the CIA World Factbook) hasn't got them. Maybe they can be found a mere 10 points further West at 31 30N and 34 45E in a country that is currently surrounding itself with a wall?
The expectation was that trade sanctions would have worked in Iraq, if they had been given sufficient time to produce the desired effect. They are still expected to work in Cuba and North Korea, as the children of those countries are not the recipients of humanitarian aid administered by the UN.
The 'Oil for Food Program' was the largest humanitarian operation ever, costing some $60 billion and lasting for over 6 years. This vast amount of money was expected to assist the children of Iraq. Unfortunately, Saddam Hussein's captured records implicate over 40 companies and top UN officials. They allegedly link the UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan and his son and the UN Assistant Secretary-General Benon V. Sevan, to a pay-off scheme in which some 270 prominent foreign officials skimmed billions of dollars and channeled them into private bank accounts. The corruption within the UN appears to be systematic and endemic, which may help to explain why countries on the UN Security Council were so indulgent toward Saddam, and so opposed to his removal.
The differences between expectations and reality in the whole Middle Eastern situation have become so serious that, for the third time in the history of the UK, retired senior British diplomats have warned the prime minister, Mr. Tony Blair, that the policies being pursued are doomed to failure. Similar warnings were given to Neville Chamberlain concerning his appeasement policy towards Hitler, and to Sir Anthony Eden before his ill-fated attempt to join France and Israel in 1956 and invade Egypt to stop Nasser from claiming the Suez Canal. Geo-political uncertainty is about to invade the news once again.
The markets have started to give their verdict as far as the World Economy is concerned. The Nasdaq 100 was down by over six percent, the largest weekly drop in two years, at a time when the talk centered on the floatation of Google, a company with less than $1 billion in revenue and fewer than 2,000 employees. The expectations are that its market value could be as high as $25 billion. (The Safeway grocery chain, with $34.8 billion in revenue and more than 200,000 employees, is valued at $10.3 billion). Expectations of easy pickings still reign supreme.
What we witnessed in the equity markets were just the preliminaries. The main event is still out there. The prerequisite processes that will lead to a waterfall decline, or a crash, have been set in motion.
As usual, commodities have led the way. In one day, Gold fell by 3.3 percent; Aluminum by 4.3 percent; Platinum by 4.4 percent; Copper by 5 percent; Silver by 5.9 percent; and Palladium by 8.7 percent when news emerged that the Bank of China had decided to restrict credit to slow their overheating economy. Only the price of oil stayed at its three and a half year high and at a level that will be very uncomfortable for the struggling economies of Europe. Germany, the purse of the EU, was forced to reduce its growth forecasts once again.
The Catholic faith and the EU may have been built on one central belief, but the Muslim has six fundamental obligations, which are: the acknowledgment of God; ritual prayers; the paying of alms; fasting during Ramadan; a pilgrimage to Mecca; and Jihad, or Holy War, in order to avenge injustice. The events of the past few weeks have increased the feelings of injustice in the minds of those that practice that faith wherever they reside - in their own countries or within the countries of the EU. And they have the oil. Shades of 1974? Cycles repeat.
