ZUS, MF: population of Poland will drop to 27.2 mln by 2080
According to a demographic forecast prepared by the Ministry of Finance for actuarial purposes of Social Insurance Institution (ZUS), Poland’s population will shrink to 27.2 million by 2080, down from 37.4 million in 2025 — a decline of 27%. Despite a modest rise in the fertility rate from 1.11 to 1.26, demographic trends are described as worrying due to their impact on the pension system. The working-age population will fall sharply — by over 42% by 2080 — while the post-working-age population will grow until 2057 before declining.
The share of seniors will rise steadily to 41.5% of the population by 2080. Population ageing will accelerate, with the median age increasing to about 56 years, underscoring mounting long-term economic and social challenges.
