ZUS: pension system will be stable until 2080, despite demographics
According to a long-term forecast prepared by Social Insurance Institution (ZUS), Poland’s pension system is expected to remain stable until 2080 despite adverse demographic trends. The projection, prepared every three years for the pension fund, includes pessimistic, optimistic, and baseline scenarios. Under the baseline scenario, the annual pension fund deficit (in 2024 real terms) is projected at PLN 98.3 billion in 2026 and is expected to rise to PLN 136.1 billion by 2080. The deficit is forecast to fluctuate between about 2% and 3% of GDP over the period.
The number of pensioners is projected to grow from 7.9 million in 2030 to a peak of 10.6 million in 2060, before declining slightly to 9.7 million by 2080.
