The summer season of 2022 is full of contradictions

One can look at these findings with cautious optimism, because they show that we are hungry for taking a rest and going away, which was not always possible in 2021 or in 2020 – mostly due to the Covid restrictions. Clearly, prices play a major role here. Representatives of the tourism industry, especially its part that is focused on foreign travel, quite openly say that this year’s holidays could turn out to be the most expensive ones in history, and the price increase may go well beyond 30 percent. Foreign travel is indeed a global market, and experts say that this year we may be dealing with some sort of a Covid effect, which means cumulative demand reaching two years. To put it simply, for two years people all around the world denied themselves the joy of travel for one reason or another – just to take advantage of it right now – in 2022.

For those who have already felt the galloping inflation in their portfolios there will be yet another hard nut to crack – this time caused by the weakening Polish zloty, which will translate into their reactions to the prices found abroad. In the leisure industry, we often say that holidays are a time when we can anticipate some scaling. We go to a hotel, where we expect the standard to be at least slightly better than back at home. We allow ourselves more attractions than usual, and we just want to enjoy our time off. The weakening zloty may not be conducive to these plans in the context of a foreign trip planned for 2022.

This is due to a simple cost structure. Inflation – whether higher or lower – affects several countries, but the fuel prices that are rising around the world actually have the greatest impact on the costs of foreign holidays and charter flights. Hence the dramatic jump in prices, especially in the case of longer journeys. In Poland, apart from inflation, gas and electricity price increases have played a major role. The way I see it is that, today, domestic trips (e.g. in holiday apartments) have become much less expensive than trips abroad. What is more, in our country, we can still count on discounts and bargains; when it comes to holidays abroad, however, as tour operators agree, “last minute” deals will simply not be on the table anymore. This is why I am not at all surprised to see as many as 71 percent of those who are willing to stay in Poland. However, I am moderately pessimistic whether all of these 71 percent of respondents will actually decide to take a rest at all.

It is hard to say what this summer will ultimately look like, but I think one can assume with a high degree of probability that taking a holiday in Poland – especially in family apartments, at campsites, or tent sites – which, by the way, are currently in vogue again, at least in the media – will turn out to be one of the cheapest options available for Poles. However, even these campsites or private apartments, at least at the beginning of the high summer season, see fewer bookings and enquiries than in previous years. The hotel industry is also quite clear about the situation. As we have also noticed at Sun & Snow, the average holiday time per reservation is going down. Instead of two weeks, some people shorten their trip to 7 days. These days, some tourists plan only short trips – e.g. weekend trips. On the one hand, we feel a need for rest; on the other hand, as a society, we are getting confused, and even scared. Rising interest rates mean higher mortgage instalments for a lot of people. The already mentioned inflation – even though we do not feel it so strongly on a daily basis to give up on our holiday plans – makes us think about what the situation will look like in a few months.

To sum up, the soaring costs of foreign travel will surely encourage a lot of people to opt for domestic holidays – especially since the current risk of having Covid restrictions imposed in Poland is close to zero, and the global situation remains tense.

However, these are certainly not circumstances that allow us to be over-optimistic at home. We could be looking at a similar uncertainty about the future – both among tourists and owners of apartments or hotels. Having said this, I think that the holiday apartment market will walk away unscathed. As I have already noted – it is still one of the cheapest leisure options, especially for families with two or more children, and after two years of the pandemic we do not want to completely give up on holiday travel as a society, as shown by the PTO survey, which I talked about earlier on. The events related to the pandemic have identified a large group of people who have been looking for a second home where they could relax or spend their holidays, if necessary, regardless of the offer of the tourism industry. In this case, the financial aspect, i.e. the prospect of renting such apartments, was less important or simply neglected during the purchase. Looking through the prism of rising prices of foreign trips and domestic leisure, one could claim that these people probably do not regret the decisions they have made. This is an important factor that may also affect the development segment related to holiday apartments in Poland in the coming years.

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