67% - if we vote
When entering the EU, Ireland's quality of life factor was a mere 64% of EU levels, yet now it stands at an impressive 128%. Poland's current living quality, on the other hand, stands at a dismal 39%. What will it be in 5 or 15 years?
With an embarrassingly low turnout during the recent local elections, the society is far from political consciousness. With 18 months to go before accession it seems that it is a trait the authorities ought to take a note of.
The biggest problem by far is still societal support for EU accession. According to public opinion polls, although a slim majority of the population intends to vote, it seems the media image of sceptics is much clearer than that of the supporters.
If the accession referendum were to take place right now, 67% would vote "yes" for the Union, according to the latest Public Opinion Research Centre (CBOS) poll. The result is substantially lower than last month, having fallen by six points. According to CBOS, the fall is mainly attributable to the fact that less people intend to vote in the referendum - 69% of those polled, which is another three-point drop from last month's figures. Although many political commentators question the reliability and scope of opinion polls, CBOS still remains the nation's window to public sentiments and attitudes.
The opponents not only seem more visible but also more consistent in voicing their beliefs.
"The possible increase of scepticism towards integration with the EU in its delicate form can be manifested by not participating in the referendum rather than more negative manifestations and voting against EU accession altogether," the CBOS pollsters said.
However, political commentators warn that EU opponents are not as passive as they appear in countrywide polls.
"EU opponents have higher motivation and they are likely to use the EU referendum in order to express their opposition against Miller's government," said Chris Mularczyk, the Business Journal's political analyst.
Among the general public, including those who are not planning to vote, support for the EU stands at 59%, while the percentage of staunch opponents is at 24%.
The attitude towards EU accession clearly divides the country into two parts. In the "belt" of voivodships on the western border the support is higher than the countrywide average. In each of the western voivodships at least three-quarters of the population declare they will take part in the referendum.
The lowest support for EU accession can be observed in the eastern regions. Declared support for the EU among the most likely participants of the referendum does not exceed 60%. In Podlaskie, Lubelskie and Podkarpackie voivodships EU supporters, regardless of their voting intentions, constitute less than half of the regions' inhabitants.
The Pomorskie region stands on its own in its waning EU support. It does not follow its western neighbours who seem to embrace the concept of Euroland with open arms, but its long-standing tradition as Poland's gateway to the world does not place it on a par with the country's eastern provinces.
"The economic situation has worsened in the region, unemployment is on the increase, the general atmosphere is not very EU inspiring," said Joanna Zbierska from the European Integration Office at Gdańsk's city hall.
Zbierska also pointed out that political sentiments have always played an important role in the region where the birthplace of the Solidarnoć movement is located.
She also said that not everyone in the region felt the same, with the countryside's Kaszuby inhabitants realising the business potential of agrotourism.
"The Kaszuby region is dominated by a so-called positive right-wing family model, characterised by lack of mobility but also by openness," Zbierska said. "The people there certainly know how to count."
The relatively low EU support in the eastern regions can most likely be attributed to their economic backwardness. The regions are agrarian in nature, the level of foreign investment is insufficient and fewer contacts with western entrepreneurs are established. The fears regarding trading limitations with eastern countries, the cornerstone of the local economy, are also on the rise.
"The problem is that no-one really knows what will happen with our contacts with the East," Mularczyk said. "The matter was never really brought up."
Although the staggering discrepancy in EU support between the nation's eastern and western regions is not likely to disappear, the government does not seem keen on introducing tailor-made campaigns for the eastern areas. According to Mularczyk, the current campaign is not clearly targeted at all and at times may even scare some of the potential voters off.
"If SME owners hear that they will soon join a huge unified market, they are likely to be more frightened than encouraged," he said.
The western regions, where EU support is the highest in all of the country, have been exposed to trade and cultural contacts with the West for a long time. Historically, the national boundaries have gone back and forth, allowing for a more open, more cosmopolitan society. The local authorities have the experience in contacts with the West backed by an influx of western investments, and very well developed business contacts with Germany.
Pollsters point out that another influence on the voting tendencies in that region is political in nature. EU support in the western regions has gone up since the last parliamentary elections and Miller's clear pro-EU policy. Needless to say, the western half of the country is the true bastion of SLD support.
Few regions decide to pursue their own pro-EU initiative the way the Małopolski region decided to last week. The "Yes in the referendum" initiative, started by Civic Platform MP Bogdan Klich, will try to reach pensioners, the disabled and people living in the countryside, in the first of this type of campaign in the country.
While more than half the population believes that the government's information campaign on the EU "encourages one to vote" in the upcoming referendum, 21% say it neither encourages nor discourages them from voting. Provided the numbers can be trusted, this 21% group could make or break the referendum if it does not believe the information it has received is sufficient. The government campaign has not brought about a major social interest in EU related matters, while local campaigns are only beginning to emerge. What the government and local authorities should find disturbing, however, is that over the last few months the level of being informed about the integration has deteriorated even further amongst EU opponents. This means that EU sceptics are more demanding of the information regarding the Union and may be more driven to voice their opinions at the ballot box.
With an embarrassingly low turnout during the recent local elections, the society is far from political consciousness. With 18 months to go before accession it seems that it is a trait the authorities ought to take a note of.
The biggest problem by far is still societal support for EU accession. According to public opinion polls, although a slim majority of the population intends to vote, it seems the media image of sceptics is much clearer than that of the supporters.
If the accession referendum were to take place right now, 67% would vote "yes" for the Union, according to the latest Public Opinion Research Centre (CBOS) poll. The result is substantially lower than last month, having fallen by six points. According to CBOS, the fall is mainly attributable to the fact that less people intend to vote in the referendum - 69% of those polled, which is another three-point drop from last month's figures. Although many political commentators question the reliability and scope of opinion polls, CBOS still remains the nation's window to public sentiments and attitudes.
The opponents not only seem more visible but also more consistent in voicing their beliefs.
"The possible increase of scepticism towards integration with the EU in its delicate form can be manifested by not participating in the referendum rather than more negative manifestations and voting against EU accession altogether," the CBOS pollsters said.
However, political commentators warn that EU opponents are not as passive as they appear in countrywide polls.
"EU opponents have higher motivation and they are likely to use the EU referendum in order to express their opposition against Miller's government," said Chris Mularczyk, the Business Journal's political analyst.
Among the general public, including those who are not planning to vote, support for the EU stands at 59%, while the percentage of staunch opponents is at 24%.
The attitude towards EU accession clearly divides the country into two parts. In the "belt" of voivodships on the western border the support is higher than the countrywide average. In each of the western voivodships at least three-quarters of the population declare they will take part in the referendum.
The lowest support for EU accession can be observed in the eastern regions. Declared support for the EU among the most likely participants of the referendum does not exceed 60%. In Podlaskie, Lubelskie and Podkarpackie voivodships EU supporters, regardless of their voting intentions, constitute less than half of the regions' inhabitants.
The Pomorskie region stands on its own in its waning EU support. It does not follow its western neighbours who seem to embrace the concept of Euroland with open arms, but its long-standing tradition as Poland's gateway to the world does not place it on a par with the country's eastern provinces.
"The economic situation has worsened in the region, unemployment is on the increase, the general atmosphere is not very EU inspiring," said Joanna Zbierska from the European Integration Office at Gdańsk's city hall.
Zbierska also pointed out that political sentiments have always played an important role in the region where the birthplace of the Solidarnoć movement is located.
She also said that not everyone in the region felt the same, with the countryside's Kaszuby inhabitants realising the business potential of agrotourism.
"The Kaszuby region is dominated by a so-called positive right-wing family model, characterised by lack of mobility but also by openness," Zbierska said. "The people there certainly know how to count."
The relatively low EU support in the eastern regions can most likely be attributed to their economic backwardness. The regions are agrarian in nature, the level of foreign investment is insufficient and fewer contacts with western entrepreneurs are established. The fears regarding trading limitations with eastern countries, the cornerstone of the local economy, are also on the rise.
"The problem is that no-one really knows what will happen with our contacts with the East," Mularczyk said. "The matter was never really brought up."
Although the staggering discrepancy in EU support between the nation's eastern and western regions is not likely to disappear, the government does not seem keen on introducing tailor-made campaigns for the eastern areas. According to Mularczyk, the current campaign is not clearly targeted at all and at times may even scare some of the potential voters off.
"If SME owners hear that they will soon join a huge unified market, they are likely to be more frightened than encouraged," he said.
The western regions, where EU support is the highest in all of the country, have been exposed to trade and cultural contacts with the West for a long time. Historically, the national boundaries have gone back and forth, allowing for a more open, more cosmopolitan society. The local authorities have the experience in contacts with the West backed by an influx of western investments, and very well developed business contacts with Germany.
Pollsters point out that another influence on the voting tendencies in that region is political in nature. EU support in the western regions has gone up since the last parliamentary elections and Miller's clear pro-EU policy. Needless to say, the western half of the country is the true bastion of SLD support.
Few regions decide to pursue their own pro-EU initiative the way the Małopolski region decided to last week. The "Yes in the referendum" initiative, started by Civic Platform MP Bogdan Klich, will try to reach pensioners, the disabled and people living in the countryside, in the first of this type of campaign in the country.
While more than half the population believes that the government's information campaign on the EU "encourages one to vote" in the upcoming referendum, 21% say it neither encourages nor discourages them from voting. Provided the numbers can be trusted, this 21% group could make or break the referendum if it does not believe the information it has received is sufficient. The government campaign has not brought about a major social interest in EU related matters, while local campaigns are only beginning to emerge. What the government and local authorities should find disturbing, however, is that over the last few months the level of being informed about the integration has deteriorated even further amongst EU opponents. This means that EU sceptics are more demanding of the information regarding the Union and may be more driven to voice their opinions at the ballot box.
