A boost in retail sales could signal recovery or increased seasonal demand

On Friday the Central Statistical Office (GUS) deputy president Halina Dmochowska said that there are more and more positive signs in the economy, which could indicate early signals that a recovery has started. According to a GUS report on the first seven months of the year, in July retail sales increased by 8.6% in current prices and by 7.7% when adjusted for inflation. The Ipsos-Demoskop polling agency found that consumers' propensity to spend rose by a modest 3 points. "The results may simply reflect increased seasonal demand," said PKO SA economist Jacek Wisniewski. "People are travelling all over the country and it is obvious that they are buying more. If this trend continues into August and September then we can be more certain of what it actually is," said Wisniewski. At the same time he was cautious to say that so far businesses are not showing any increased optimism as they believe that domestic demand will not greatly increase. (Gazeta Wyborcza, August 24-25, p. 23) A.Z.