A new dawn or a false light?

The two largest groupings of the center-right, the Civic Platform (PO) and the Law and Justice (PiS) party, announced that they will sign an agreement to work together during local elections. The deal covers elections to the voivodship (regional) tier of local government but will also mean joint slates of candidates in many cities and powiats (counties). Is this the beginning of the long-awaited recovery of the center-right or is it yet another opportunistic coalition to fight the dominant Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) and the populist Andrzej Lepper, which will fall apart as soon as the two find they cannot agree on policy and candidates to field?

The history of the Polish center-right is littered with splits leading to the creation of new groupings. All of the center-right's politicians have been involved with more than one party label during their careers. All have tried to put together coalitions that would make the center-right a worthy opponent for a united and well-organized left. Up until now all of these efforts have failed because: " There are real ideological disputes on the Polish right that cannot easily be resolved. A large section of the Polish right, including PiS, are skeptical about liberal market economics and circumspect about Polish membership in the EU.

" The center-right has been torn apart by years of personal dislikes and infighting between its leaders. It all began back in 1990 when some in the center-right were instrumental in backing Lech Wałęsa for president. Wałęsa distrusted parties and preferred a divide-and-rule approach to building harmony. The distrust and discord survived Wałęsa's defeat in 1995 and spilled over into Solidarity Election Action (AWS).

" The only attempt to unite the right in one big bloc under (AWS) was flawed from the start. Solidarity as a trade union was not prepared or positioned to lead the right. It certainly did not have the right people to govern and its trade union role led it down the path of opposition to market economics. AWS scored a surprise victory in the 1997 election. However, the tensions and contradictions apparent at its formation soon tore that movement apart as agreement on policy and leadership became impossible to achieve.

" The center-right has suffered from a lack of convincing leadership. Wałęsa was a flawed leader because he was not prepared for teamwork. Marian Krzaklewski, the leader of the Solidarity trade union, was far too indecisive, wanting to negotiate from morning until night, and proved to be a disaster with the mass media. The Kaczyński brothers, currently heading up the PiS party, may be very shrewd operators but they have not been able to build a large party around them. Andrzej Olechowski, the founder of PO, does not want to lead a political party at all and has left his followers rudderless.

Will the coalition between the PO and PiS break new ground for the center-right leading to greater unity? I am not convinced. In terms of policy, the two camps have different views on the economy and the EU. Neither of the parties was prepared to give way in the battle for mayor of Warsaw, where both Lech Kaczyński and Olechowski are determined to test their presidential ambitions for 2005. Understandably fearful of repeating the mistakes of the past they have agreed not to invite other smaller center-right parties such as the Freedom Union (UW) and the remains of the AWS debacle to join them. However, this inevitably means that another center-right slate of candidates will surface in the local elections.

In the run-up to signing their agreement they have already run into a dispute over possible post-election coalitions with the SLD at the local government level. PiS categorically rules out any deals with the left while the PO is prepared to consider such deals in some cities. The real problem here is in Warsaw where PO has been shacked up with the SLD in local government - much to the annoyance of the right. The coalition between PO and PiS has been born out of electoral necessity. The two parties have to work with each other in Parliament to make any impression. In the same way they have to try and work together in the local elections to put up a fight against the SLD. But do not expect them to agree on policy or leadership. This election agreement, if it happens, will be welcome by those parts of the electorate who oppose Prime Minister Leszek Miller's government and have no time for anti-EU and collectivist parties such as Lepper's Self-Defense or Radio Maryja's League of Polish Families (LPR). At least they may have something to unite around. Let us hope their hopes are not disappointed, as has so often been the case in the past.

Chris Mularczyk is a Warsaw-based consultant. He can be e-mailed at cmularczyk@wbj.pl.