A Pyrrhic victory

"What the country needs most right now is maturity and decisiveness in the face of uncertainty."

   Poland’s 3-0 victory over Norway, securing the team a place in the 2002 World Cup finals, gave Poles around the country something to smile about last week. Of course, it didn’t last long and four days later the Polish team was hammered by Belarus 4-1. Nevertheless, Poland is now through to the finals for the first time since 1986.

   “Who cares?” I hear people say as they scour this column for an informed opinion on the state of the nation. Well, interestingly, it’s a fact that sweet victory on the field is often reflected in higher productivity the next day at work and a feeling of optimism among a generally cynical and disgruntled populace. Politicians the world over love their national teams to do well. It’s a guaranteed vote winner, part of a patriotic feel-good factor. The U.K.’s Tony Blair cannily issued a congratulatory message via the nation’s media after England thrashed Germany 5-1 last week.

   Polish politicians, unfortunately, failed to capitalize on the mood of the country, although ironically arch fiscal foes Jarosław Bauc, the recently sacked finance minister, and Marek Belka, touted as the future finance minister, were pictured cheering on their national side together. It’s a shame they can’t seem to do the same when they’re running the country’s economy.

   Predictably, within a few days of the World Cup victory, an air of pessmism enveloped the nation and daily headlines once again centered on Poland’s desperate need to find an answer to the country’s huge budget deficit – estimated at 11% of gross domestic product (GDP) for 2002. But because of the confusion at the heart of government, few volunteered any possible solutions to the problem. The only person who did, Prime Minister Jerzy Buzek, failed to garner backing for his 2002 fiscal austerity plan, and was criticized by the Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) for being too vague. Unfortunately, the SLD’s plans looked even more opaque, with no one coming forward to proffer a decision let alone a solution.

   Likewise, this continuing prevarication failed to fire the markets even after news that shares in Telekomunikacja Polska had been sold to France Telecom for $825 million – surely the best news of the week after the Norway victory. In fact, the złoty responded by dropping 0.5% against the euro.

   Unusually, most politicians do seem to agree that Poland has to cap the 2002 gap at 5% of GDP, the highest level the country can afford without pushing inflation back up and irrevocably losing market confidence. But with the current state of inertia in Parliament, no one is expecting a white knight to save the day. If anything, the SLD’s continuing lack of sparkle over economic decision making is adding fuel to the fire. Last week, some 60% of Poles said they were against any form of privatization, certainly until after the elections. That opinion is ill informed and bad for the country, but it’s an opinion that is being fed to people by politicians out to make political capital from pre-election confusion. Privatization, among other things, means money to help balance the books. What the country needs most right now is maturity and decisiveness in the face of uncertainty. The people of Poland deserve some straight talking.