Airlines predicting modest lift in December passenger traffic
While lower passenger traffic on flights out of Poland during the holiday season has been the norm in previous years, airlines are forecasting modest but increased bookings for the 1999 holiday season.
"December looks better than December last year," said Hans Scheller, country manager for Lufthansa German Airlines.
This month, Lufthansa is forecasting its passenger traffic will increase by about 12% over last December, with about 15,000 passengers expected to fly out of Warsaw's Okecie airport. Cabin capacity is expected to be about 80%.
Typically, air traffic slowdowns in December stem from reduced business-class flights since business travelers tend to schedule fewer business-related trips during Christmas and the New Year.
"December is not as busy a month as is November or October," said Emilia Osewska, sales manager for British Airways in Poland, who described the slowdown as a trend she has seen in previous years. But while Osewska said that British Airways still had space available in both business and economy class, she also said that the number of passengers flying during the holidays should be higher by 10% in 1999, as compared to 1998.
This year's modest December traffic increase can be linked to the general growth of the airline industry in Poland and the fact that more Poles are traveling around the holidays. This has kept economy-class passenger numbers up, although such seats aren't as profitable for airlines as business-class seats.
Still, airlines are happy to see any increase.
"Low yield is better than no yield," said Pekka Immonen, Finnair's regional sales director. Immonen estimated that over the holiday season, 2,000 passengers in the category of holiday makers would be flying Finnair, an increase of about 10% compared to the same time frame in 1998. And while business travel on Finnair may be slower in December, getting a seat in economy class can mean waiting and a need to plan in advance.
"In six cases out of 10, you would have to wait" to find a seat, Immonen said.
Poland still lags behind the Nordic region, though, where people fly more often during the holidays. Booking a flight there can require up to three weeks' notice.
Despite the seasonal slowdown, many airlines are not offering special deals for Christmas or New Year's because these would not boost business traffic and filling economy seats is not as much of a problem.
"It would be very silly for an airline to lower prices when you have more demand," Immonen said.
That doesn't mean there aren't any deals to be found. British Airways, for example, does not plan to offer any specials on its long-haul flights, but the airline is offering return shopping trips between Warsaw and London, including three nights in two- to four-star hotels for a starting price of $317. The promotion runs Dec. 8-Dec. 26.
Another offer was from British Midlands, which ended late last week and offered return flights from Warsaw to London for $89. Flights are to be completed before Jan. 31, 2000.
British Midland's offer is not likely to affect either of the main carriers to the U.K., LOT Polish Airlines and British Airways, because both airlines have such large sales to England and occupy a secure place in the market, Immonen said. At the same time, he also understood British Midland's position.
"They would like to pry into the market so that people try their product," he said.
There has been no noticeable drop in bookings because of British Midland's offer, said Osewska, who was not worried. And the airline does not plan to match British Midland's offer.
"It's something that you don't necessarily have to react to," Immonen said.
