Analysts call for cellular growth

Poland's once explosive mobile phone market disappointed analysts with limited growth in 2001, though some industry officials foresee sales escalating during the next 12 months. "The boom is not over yet," said Leszek Kamiński, spokesman for Polkomtel, Poland's second-largest wireless operator. About 10 million subscribers were dialed into wireless services last year as the cell phone market grew 46%, down from 70% growth in 2000. "The experience in 2001 was disappointing because people expected (the market) to grow more rapidly," said Michal Rizek, a regional telecoms analyst at CA IB Securities in Prague. He said cautious spenders refrained from purchasing cellular services due to the country's macroeconomic slump, especially at the beginning of last year. Artur Ludwiczyński, a telecoms analyst at market research firm IDC, said that although Poland's mobile market would continue to grow in 2002, the country would not experience a boom similar to the Czech Republic's, where penetration rates recently increased 20-25%. Poland's mobile penetration rate, or the number of subscribers per 100 inhabitants, increased to 26% in 2001 from 18% in 2000, a percentage considered low compared to the rates in other Central European countries. The Czech Republic, the regional leader in mobile market growth, hit a penetration rate of almost 70% in 2001. Nevertheless, analysts said they expected Poland's mobile penetration rate to reach 34-36% by the end of 2002 since Poland is far from reaching its saturation point. "We expect continuous growth," Ludwiczyński said. "Once the market passes the threshold of 20-25% it accelerates, so we were expecting it to grow a little faster." Poland's largest operator Polska Telefonia Cyfrowa (PTC) - owned by conglomerate Elektrim, French media and utility concern Vivendi and Germany's Deutsche Telekom - said it had 3.77 million customers at the end of 2001, up from 2.8 million at the end of 2000, giving it a 38% market share. PTC declined to forecast the number of new subscribers for this year. Polkomtel - whose shareholders include Polish copper firm KGHM Polska Miedź and oil refiner Polski Koncern Naftowy Orlen (PKN Orlen) as well as European telecom firms Vodafone and TDC - had 3.45 million clients at the end of 2001, up from 2.4 million clients 12 months earlier. The firm had 35% of the mobile market share in 2001. Polkomtel said it expected to gain 900,000 to 1 million new clients in 2002. PTK Centertel, the smallest operator, owned by Telekomunikacja Polska (TPSA) and France Telecom, ended 2001 with more than 2.8 million subscribers, up from 1.65 million in 2000, giving it a market share of 28%. Centertel said it expects to have a total of 4 million subscribers by the end of 2002 with an additional 3-4% growth in market share. According to Rizek's forecast, by the end of 2002 PTC will have a 38% market share with about 5.3 million subscribers, Polkomtel 33% with 4.7 million customers and Centertel 29% with 4.2 million subscribers.