Analysts predict 1.3% GDP growth for 2002

According to analysts' forecasts, GDP growth for the whole of 2002 will amount to 1.3%. Moreover, they predict that the Monetary Policy Council (RPP) is unlikely to further cut interest rates, despite the fact that the difference between inflation and the basic interest rate may reach 5.8%. According to a Reuters poll, only four of the 21 analysts questioned predict that interest rates will be further cut by 25 or 50 basis points. Moreover, the market expectations for next year's rate cuts have dropped from 150-200 points only three weeks ago to no more than 100 points now. The price index is very likely to reach a historic low of 1.1% for the whole of 2002, which meets Ministry of Finance predictions. Forecasts for 2003 foresee inflation of between 1.4% and 3.6%. The market is least optimistic about industrial output, as most of the analysts claim it will drop in November in comparison to October's values. The expectations foresee it growing by only 1.5% for last month, while in October it rose by 3.2%. (Prawo i Gospodarka, p. 8) M.M.