Analysts predict zloty's rapid ascent is sure sign of imminent fall

The zloty's appreciation in value against the dollar in recent weeks has been so rapid that it has already reached levels analysts thought it would attain in three months' time. As such, professionals are now predicting the currency's value will soon drop. At the end of last year the zloty was expected to rise steadily thanks to Poland's positive macroeconomic indicators. However, in light of its skyrocket ascent and the likelihood that less positive economic data will be published in the offing, analysts now expect it to fall. "Year- on-year industrial output will likely drop 6%," said Krzysztof Rybi&324;ski, chief economist for ING Barings in Warsaw. ING Barings expects the dollar to cost zl.4.33 at the end of 2001. Credit Suisse Asset Management advisor Slawomir Gajewski forecasts the year-end exchange rate at between zl.4.4 and zl.4.5 to the dollar, while Citibank projects a rate of zl.4.46 to the dollar. (Puls Biznesu, p.30)