April industrial output is positive
A robust domestic manufacturing industry pushed last month's industrial output 5.5% higher than April a year ago.
Though it was down 8.1% from March, analysts said fewer working days in April were to blame. "In my opinion it was a good figure because there were two or three fewer working days than in the previous month (and) one less than April of last year," said Amerbank's head of research, Jacek Wisniewski.
With a gross domestic product (GDP) breakdown still not available for the first quarter of 2000, the mystery question among economy watchers is whether or not industrial output growth is being driven by foreign or domestic demand. The worry that Poland's seemingly insatiable appetite for foreign goods will continue to widen the current account deficit, which already consumes 8.3% of GDP, is only relieved by the hope that Polish goods are starting to look more attractive to foreigners.
Economists believe a weakened zloty should help to this end in future statistics, especially since Polish exports usually compete more on price than quality. "I believe that in the coming months we should witness the increasing importance of exports in influencing industrial output, but definitely, domestic demand should stay as the main factor," said Marcin Mroz, an economist with the Wood & Co. brokerage.
A positive sign, Mroz said, is that a slowdown in car sales a huge chunk of Poland's imports seems to be underway.
Wisniewski pointed to Central Statistical Office (GUS) annual export figures for January and February, showing exports up 30% and 13%, respectively, as evidence of a positive upturn for the trade imbalance. Central bank figures usually lag behind GUS figures by several months as they make calculations based on payments rather than on customs documents.
"We can see that the demand for Polish goods is growing," Wisniewski said. "I think that sooner or later it will be visible in the current account data."
A breakdown of industrial output shows a rise in sold industrial output in manufacturing companies of 5.9% annually at the same time as the mining component of the index saw a 7.4% decline. In manufacturing, 17 of 29 tracked industries which include everything from leather to machinery to food saw improved figures. Notable were transport equipment, up 49.4% and petroleum-based products, up 28.2% on an annual basis. The tobacco industry was down 21.6%.
Industrial output measures only production that has been sold without taking into account value-added taxes (VAT), excise taxes and government subsidies.
