Bank analysts forecast export slowdown while industry needs self-promotion

Economists of BRE Bank (BRE) forecast that "exports will not speed the growth of the Polish economy next year." Citibank analysts likewise forecast that it will become more difficult to overcome the current accounts gap, since Poland sells mostly low processed goods abroad. "Polish exports react more to changes in external demand than to changes in the currency rate. This means that Poland's economic situation will decline, since the rate of economic growth in the European Union (EU) could even drop below 3% next year," said chief BRE economist Janusz Jankowiak. If the export drop is accompanied by a decrease in imports, than there is nothing to worry about, since the current accounts gap would then stop widening. According to BRE predictions, the deficit will stop at 7.2% of GDP in 2000; Citibank economists forecast it at a level of 7.4% of GDP, with a drop to 7% in 2001. Although both banks highlight the possibility of a drop in internal demand next year, they assume it will not influence imports. "Consumer imports constitute only 20% of imports, and the rest accounts for supplying and investing, which is necessary for production," said Citibank economist Katarzyna Zajdel-Kurowska. In order to promote exports, entrepreneurs should think about creating an institute for export promotion, which would be financed substantially by exporters, but would also receive minor funding from public sources. "I hope that Polish entrepreneurs will have a growing awareness of investing their own capital in export promotion," said Ciech president Wieslaw Kiepiel.