Banking sentiment index rebounds

One in every three bank outlets in Poland said they had seen improved economic conditions over the past month.
By : Leo Broomfield

   After a fall in July to 18.1%, the banking sector sentiment index rebounded this month to 25.1% – a five-month high, according to figures from a Pentor poll released last week.

   The poll, which surveyed 201 bank officials throughout Poland, credited much of the improved sentiment to the regeneration in the currency deposits market, in which 40% of bank outlets asked said they had seen a rise.

   However, the poll's findings also suggest banks are not expecting a credit boom in the near future, despite interest rates having been lowered three times this year already. Bankers said rates were still too high. They also pointed to macroeconomic fears keeping potential credit takers sidelined.

   One in every three bank outlets in Poland said they had seen improved economic conditions over the past month, with about 50% saying they expected to see improvement over the next month and only 7% who said they had seen a worsening of the climate.

   The poll also revealed that more than 90% of bank officials polled positively evaluated electronic banking, against 7% who had some reservations. Just over half said they thought electronic banking in Poland was developing at a moderate tempo and two-thirds of those polled said e-banking was "safe."

   By July, 284,000 Poles had used e-banking services – nearly four times more than in the same period last year, according to data from the Union of Polish Banks (ZBP).

   According to the Pentor poll, the consensus of opinion in the banking sector is that the Lombard interest rate will finish the year at 18.4%, credit for economic activity will finish the year at 18.6%, and three-month rates will finish at 11.4%.

   They also said they expected to see inflation reach 7.6% by year-end, up on the government's forecast of 5.8%. They also predicted that the dollar will trade at zl. 4.32 and the euro at zl. 3.88, more or less in line with market forecasts.

   In addition, the poll also indicated that 55.8% of respondents were "very sure" and 38.5% "sure" that their bank was ready to handle euro-zloty transactions when the 11 members of the European Union's (EU) Eurozone adopt the currency at the start of 2002.