Beware of rogue polls

Polish pollsters have a reputation for being erratic. In 1997 they showed Solidarity Election Action (AWS) and the Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) neck and neck whereas in the election AWS won by more than 7% of the vote. In the constitutional referendum in 1997 they were predicting a 2-1 landslide for the "yes" camp. In the end the "yes" camp shaved it by just 4%. In 2001 a week before election day most polls were giving Andrzej Lepper's Self-Defense party just 3%. On election night Lepper and his red-and white tie brigade polled more than 10%. Does anyone seriously believe that they more then trebled their vote in just seven days? Or was there some "creative polling" going on? How do the pollsters defend themselves? They held a seminar in Warsaw ealier this year at which they reassured us that although they all use different methodologies the trends they portray are similar. They argue that opinion polls are just snap shots of public opinion at any given moment and not a prediction of election outcomes. They point out that in elections late swings produce upset results. They will no doubt hold another seminar when they have thought up some more excuses for the discrepancies in their figures.

The government strategists lead by the new European Union Information Supremo Sławomir Wiatr are being told by the pollsters that the majority in favor of EU accession in Poland is around 2-1. These polls may be providing them with a very distorted picture. " They are not taking account of those who are refusing to say how they will vote. Those not wanting to disclose are more than likely "no" voters.

" They are taking at face value the "don't knows," assuming that these are probably non-voters. "Don't knows" are in reality more likely to be a more polite breed of "no" voter.

" They are not using the secret ballot method in which the voters being polled put their responses into a ballot box. A more expensive method that protects the results from peer-group pressure distortions (people telling the interviewers what they think they want to hear) caused by the assumption that the EU is a good and wholesome thing. This leaves the poll results at the mercy of the interviewers, some of whom might be the kind of well-meaning souls I used to meet when canvassing for a political party in Britain. They were capable of interpreting a slammed door as a "don't know" and a "go away I am watching the telly" as a "maybe."

" No results are coming through on "what if" questions that could show how public opinion shifts if you suppose that Polish farmers do not get 100% compensatory payments, food prices for consumers rise and small businesses face increased competition.

Make no mistake about it: The referendum will be no push-over for the "yes" camp. One only has to look at the recent escalating support for Lepper. The ultra-Catholic Radio Maryja is also ready and waiting. In addition, the "yes" camp will be saddled with support from a government becoming increasingly unpopular for having to balance the budget. Arguments focusing on the reunification of Europe and visions of long-term opportunities asociated with EU membership are only preaching to the converted and cut little ice with most members of the public.

The "yes" camp hold only three strong cards: " Support from the pope and the Polish Episcopate (but not necessarily from the local clergy)

" Support from President Aleksander Kwaśniewski, Poland's most popular politician

" The fact that other ćentral European countries may decide in favor of accession before Poland does give the "yes" camp the argument that Poland cannot afford to remain behind.

You may note that I do not include support from the media as a significant factor. Over-the-top propaganda is likely to fuel more suspicion and hostility than actual support. If the polling industry does not get its act together and start supplying Wiatr with some realistic data the "yes" camp may find itself very embarrassed on polling day. Instead of a "Victory for Wiatr," Poland's accession referendum may turn into "Gone with the Wind."

Chris Mularczyk is a Warsaw-based consultant. He can be reached at cmularczyk@wbj.pl