Breakup or breakthrough
Although Polish politics have always been fluid and shifting, it is only once every couple of years when an event occurs that can be termed a significant change in political scenery. Over the past seven years such "strategic shifts" have included the creation of the Freedom Union (UW) party and, three years ago, the emergence of Solidarity Election Action (AWS) as the main party of the right. Many observers felt that the resulting spectrum of the party system a post-communist left in the form of Democratic Left Alliance (SLD), a united right under AWS, and two smaller centrist parties, UW and the Polish Peasant Party (PSL) was pretty much the final one. That is, until the remarkable events of last week.
What has happened? At a press conference at the Sheraton Warsaw Hotel & Towers, former Foreign and Finance Minister Andrzej Olechowski, current parliamentary speaker Maciej Plazynski, and deputy Senate speaker Donald Tusk announced their intention to set up a center-right political force to run independently in this year's parliamentary elections. What distinguished this announcement from past efforts was the caliber of the individuals involved and the shockwaves their move has triggered inside AWS and UW. These are heavyweight players, whose decision has effectively split the two non-left parties in Poland.
It is difficult to say who was the most surprised by the announcement, UW or AWS. In the case of the latter, events just before Christmas had seemed to indicate that the long-standing dispute inside the movement had ended. AWS' internal warring factions reached a spectacular agreement to restructure the movement into a party federation, prior to the establishment of a single party after the next elections. One of the key beneficiaries of the agreement was Plazynski, a long-standing opponent of Solidarity leader Marian Krzaklewski, who obtained significant power inside the AWS federation.
Yet the day before the federation was to be announced, Plazynski stunned his AWS colleagues by withdrawing from the agreement on the basis that the AWS reform did not go far enough to remove the causes of the party's electoral decline. His departure will surely be followed by further high-ranking defections from AWS, especially from senior members of the Conservative People's Party (SKL) component of AWS, dissatisfied with Solidarity's continued influence in the movement.
It is now clear that Plazynski coordinated his move closely with Tusk, who last month narrowly lost the leadership contest inside UW to former Foreign Minister Bronislaw Geremek. Despite only a narrow loss, Tusk and his supporters were subsequently ruthlessly eliminated from the UW leadership by Geremek's faction in a move that many saw as shifting the UW towards the center-left. In contrast, Tusk and his colleagues represent the free-market, center-right wing of the party that had been the mainstay of Leszek Balcerowicz while still party leader. The marginalization of Tusk and his colleagues meant that they had nothing to lose by leaving UW and setting up the new movement.
UW's loss of its liberal faction marks the greatest crisis for the party since its establishment six years ago. A swathe of MPs have defected along with Tusk, including most significantly Warsaw Mayor Pawel Piskorski, who brings with him a significant part of UW's party organization. Also leaving the UW is the entire party youth organization. That leaves the UW essentially where it was seven years ago, dominated by an increasingly old-guard leadership of former social-democrat leaning dissidents.
The short-term effect has been confusion in the upper echelons of both AWS and UW, with the new leaderships of both parties suddenly realizing that key hands are fleeing the decks of their respective ships. The immediate reaction will be to close ranks to stop further hemorrhaging, at the same time establishing a tactical alliance between AWS and UW to neutralize and eventually destroy - what for both is the establishment of a new political competitor.
Of course, the key question for all concerned are the chances of the new political alliance which still has no name succeeding in establishing itself as a credible center-right party with a major role to play in Polish politics. Certainly the names are big enough to grab the attention of ordinary voters. And the presidential election result of Olechowski who came second shows a considerable thirst for a moderate center-right force. On the other hand, the creation of a new political party requires money and organization, and it remains to be seen how much of both the new movement will have.
Yet there is a sense among senior politicians that something truly significant has occurred. If it is true that the large current support for SLD in the opinion polls reflects disillusionment with AWS, rather than positive support for the post-communists, then it may well be that the Plazynski team will be able to draw a significant number of votes. By the same token, however, it means that the historic goal of many politicians to create a single, united, right-wing party to counter SLD will have failed. Whatever the truth, a new period in party politics seems to have opened up again.
Marek Matraszek is the Warsaw Director of CEC Government Relations. He can be e-mailed at director@cec.com.pl
