Brussels blues
Most of what happens in Polish politics comes as a surprise, but just once in a while it is possible to see political events coming over the horizon, and to be able to make a fairly good stab at predicting developments. One such issue is that of the European Union (EU) and the political fault lines that will develop over the next few years as Poles face the prospect of voting "Yes" or "No" in a referendum. Although until now, most Polish politicians have been sanguine about such a referendum's results, increasingly there are fears that a positive vote from the population maybe much more of an uphill struggle than thought.
A taste of things to come emerged last week when Jan Lopuszanski announced his presidential candidacy. A name not familiar to most casual observers of the Polish political scene, you can be sure he will be known to all by the time the campaign ends. Long known as a Catholic fundamentalist, Lopuszanski came into Parliament on an Solidarity Election Action (AWS) ticket, but was soon removed from the parliamentary club when he voted against the government's local government reform plans. He was also a member of the Christian-National Union (ZChN) party before their ways parted as well. Since then, Lopuszanski created the small Polish Alliance party, which was essentially a single-issue movement rooted in its opposition to Poland's EU entry, as well as questioning the need for Poland's entry into NATO. So obsessed is Lopuszanski with Poland not entering the EU, that last week he gave an interview to the post-communist Trybuna daily newspaper, arguing for an anti-EU campaign "across political barriers," bringing together rightists and post-communists opposed to Brussels. In his announcement that he was running, Lopuszanski focused almost exclusively on his anti-EU platform.
Most people have ignored Lopuszanski because of the Alliance's microscopic reading in Polish opinion polls, and have tended to think that such low numbers reflect the support a "No" vote would receive in a referendum. But that may be a mistake. There are several factors that suggest by the time Poland comes to take an EU vote, such opposition might include a majority of voters. First, note how although Poles rarely translate single issues into support for this or that party, they do seem to be able to coalesce into ad-hoc coalitions at referenda. Until now, the key referendum test in Poland came in 1997, when Poles were asked to vote on Poland's new constitution. Despite blanket media coverage in favor of a "Yes" vote, and the support of much of the political establishment, "No" voters almost caused an upset in a surge of voting that was completely untracked by opinion polls.
Secondly, an EU vote will be taken under a Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) government, which has made clear its strong backing of a pro-EU position. That will be a godsend to those mobilizing a "No" vote on the basis that saying "Yes" will mean a vote of confidence in Leszek Miller, the probable SLD prime minister after 2001. And conversely, it will be tempting for many to inflict on Miller a bloody nose during his premiership as a proxy for an election.
Many have questioned the strength of a "No" campaign, saying there will be no strong institutional party, such as AWS, campaigning for a "No" vote. It is true that, unlike during the constitutional referendum, Solidarity and AWS will likely join with the rest of the establishment in calling for "Yes." But much depends on the strength of AWS, since current trends indicate Poland's leading right-wing party may well be reduced to a rump in the next Parliament. That means a political vacuum on the Right, which might well be filled by a skillfully managed "No" campaign led by Lopuszanski and his Polish Alliance.
In the international context, moreover, events seem to be confirming the stereotypes held by those who see the EU as a bullying, anti-national organization. Its behavior towards Austria, and publicly declared slowdown on negotiations, have led many Poles to start resenting Brussels. And on specific issues, Brussels seems to have perfected the art of stepping on banana skins, as when last week it declared that EU membership would mean Poland scrapping tax exemptions currently applying to the declared Church. That, if nothing else, will be grist to the mill of Lopuszanski and his supporters' claims that the EU is left-liberal conspiracy seeking to destroy national Polish institutions and traditions.
All in all, the foundations seem to be being laid for the emergence over the next couple of years of a hard-core anti-EU movement in Poland. That movement will probably never crystallize into a coherent political party, or even make its presence felt very much at presidential or parliamentary elections. But it has every opportunity of coalescing over a referendum, when as in other countries that have held EU referenda it will be easy to mobilize a hard core of "No" voters in the context of an apathetic or disillusioned "Yes" electorate. Looking at the presidential election results this autumn, do not take pleasure from Jan Lopuszanski's probable poor showing: he will back, and sooner than you may think.
Marek Matraszek is the Warsaw Director of CEC Government Relations. He can be e-mailed at director@cec.com.pl
