Building bridges for NATO
Last week saw an impressive gathering in the Slovak capital, Bratislava, of top-flight politicians and analysts from the United States, Great Britain and Central Europe together with a heavyweight contingent of Central European prime ministers and defense and foreign affairs officials. The reason? Just one year after the entry of Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary to NATO, the time is ripening for a further expansion. The question is how to effect that expansion in the face of a resurgent Russia, a more skeptical political stance of some U.S. politicians, and a Europe which seems intent on loosening its ties with the U.S. and doing nothing to annoy President Vladimir Putin, the man Tony Blair thinks he can do business with.
Why expand further? The failure to include some countries in the first wave of expansion was a historical accident, like Slovakia, which happened to have the wrong sort of government at the time. In other cases, there is no reason why some countries are not members anyway, like the prosperous Slovenia. Other additions make geostrategic sense, since bringing in Bulgaria and Romania would finally build a historical bridge towards Turkey and isolate an unstable Serbia. Finally, countries like the Baltics need NATO membership to protect them from possible Russian aggression, and protecting democracies against regional bullies is what NATO is supposed to be about. So the target is to complete a "big bang" expansion of NATO by 2005, and round off the process of reunifying Europe fifteen years after the end of its Cold War division.
What has all this to do with Poland? Quite a lot. Firstly, it underlines the magnitude of responsibility Polish governments have in making sure their NATO membership is a success, since there are lot of people in the U.S. and Europe waiting to pounce on Polish inefficiencies as proof that new entrants weaken rather than strengthen the alliance. And until now the jury is still out. To be sure, there have been some spectacular successes, such as the Poles' willingness to provide troops for NATO peacekeeping forces in Kosovo, and also in the way the Poles have played their role in building NATO bridges with countries like Slovakia, Lithuania and Ukraine. But there have been glaring deficiencies, which are causing increasing frustration among NATO planners and embassy defense attaches. Recently the Poles received a rap across the knuckles from NATO Secretary-General Lord Robertson for having failed to meet many of their so-called NATO Force Goals. And the Poles have proven unable to reform their Defense Ministry budget quickly enough to free up cash for much needed purchases of heavy duty combat equipment like planes and helicopters, which seem as much a distant prospect as they did five years ago.
So the Poles have much to do internally to prove to skeptics that NATO expansion is worthwhile. But the Poles will also be influencing the tempo of NATO expansion by their external behavior, specifically towards Russia and Europe. And here there is even less cause for optimism. Close study of recent statements by both President Aleksander Kwasniewski and the leaders of the opposition Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) party which looks set to win next year's parliamentary elections show the prospect of a subtle but significant shift in foreign policy. First, Kwasniewski and SLD leader Leszek Miller have made clear there will be a rapprochement with Russia, in contrast to current "frosty" relations. But if that is the case, the improvement they want will be delivered by Putin on one condition: that the Poles stop agitating for NATO expansion, especially into the Baltics. That will be a key litmus for the SLD's foreign policy: is the priority NATO expansion, or a smug smile on the face of Mr. Putin?
Secondly, Miller and Kwasniewski have been making great play on the fact that for them, "building relations with Europe" will be the keystone to their foreign policy in the West. In practice, that means a headlong rush into the European Union, participation in the so-called "consolidation of European defense industry," and active support for the establishment of a separate European Security and Defense Identity. The latter, in the eyes of many European politicians, is the first step to limiting if not eliminating a U.S. presence in Europe, and Polish support for it under the SLD will go down like a lead balloon in Washington. Once expansion skeptics in the U.S. start to perceive Poland as a Trojan horse for anti-Americanism in Europe, that will be the death-knell for support in bringing in any further new members to NATO. Who can tell if they, too, will not stab the U.S. in the back because of the temptations of European baubles?
So there is much for Poland to do if it wants NATO expanded and its security entrenched. In the short term, the current government should get its act together in the defense sector reforms that are so badly needed to help maintain alliance effectiveness. But the real challenge will come for the SLD, who will quickly realize that delivering on their current pro-Russian and pro-European rhetoric may well sabotage future NATO expansion, and together with that, a historic opportunity to genuinely reunify Europe at the cusp of the new millennium.
Marek Matraszek is the Warsaw director of CEC Government Relations. He can be e-mailed at director@cec.com.pl
