Centre for Economic Studies' financial prognosis better for next four quarters

A leading Polish economic institute, the Independent Centre for Economic Studies (NOBE) said in a quarterly report published on Monday that Poland's stalled economy should recover over the next year with exports and rekindled investment leading the way. The report said the recovery would undoubtedly increase prices but probably not enough to warrant monetary tightening. "The economy probably bottomed out during the second quarter of 2002 and growth should significantly accelerate over the next four quarters," said NOBE. Its experts expect growth to pick up from a weak 1.1% in 2002 to about 3% in the first half of next year and 3.7% during the whole of 2003. It sees exports rising 1.1% this year and 7.0% in 2003. Investment should rise to 6.6% year-on-year in the fourth quarter from a 7.8% decline in April-June, and is expected to fall 1.0% across 2002 but to rise 7.1% next year. NOBE envisages inflation, at a record low of 1.3% year-on-year in July, rising to 2.2% in September and to 2.9% in December. Price growth should stabilize at around 4.2% in the last two quarters of 2003. The current account deficit is predicted to increase to 4.8% of GDP next year from a forecast 4.3% in 2002. (Reuters) M.M.