Changes ahead?
One of the most common topics of discussion within Warsaw political salons over the last couple of years has involved laying bets on which minister would be removed and when. But now, just when most political observers had come to terms with the fact that any further changes in the government were unlikely, that assumption looks to be set on its head if recent statements by Marian Krzaklewski, the leader of Solidarity Election Action (AWS), are anything to go by.
Just a few weeks after Krzaklewski announced his decision to be "a candidate to be a candidate" essentially ensuring that in fact he will be the main candidate of the center-right in this year's presidential elections the AWS leader made his first openly campaigning speech, focusing on two areas. The first was his claim to the mantle of leader of the entire "post-August" forces, a reference to the first mass anticommunist Solidarity movement of August 1980. By this he meant not only AWS politicians, but also members of the Freedom Union (UW), and the more right-wing Movement for the Reconstruction of Poland (ROP) party led by former Prime Minister Jan Olszewski. To that list Krzaklewski included Lech Walesa, and the latter's Christian Democracy party.
Krzaklewski's ambition to build a broader coalition, however, is limited by his implication that his entire campaign will based around shoring up the right, that is, to campaigning on a strictly right-wing agenda to prevent a more extreme right wing from developing and filling any political vacuum. This has been a traditional obsession of Krzaklewski, who remains convinced that the way to win elections is to appeal to the fringes, rather than the center. The man Krzaklewski fears most is Jan Lopuszanski, a former leader of the AWS Christian-National Union (ZChN) faction, who was expelled a couple of years back and went on to form a radical Catholic and anti-European Union party, the Polish Alliance. Yet such fringe figures have never done well in elections, and electoral statistics show more and more Poles moving toward the center. In fact, that is the secret of the success of President Aleksander Kwasniewski: making gestures to his core supporters but ensuring his appeal is that of a broad-based "moderate."
Yet Krzaklewski remains a rational politician, and it may well be that during his campaign there will be enough cool heads on his team to deter him from what would otherwise be a suicidal electoral strategy. But apart from trying to eliminate political rivals on the center-right outside of AWS, Krzaklewski's other main concern has been to bring discipline into the ranks of AWS and limit the open warfare that has been dragging on for months around his candidacy. Ever since it became clear that Krzaklewski was determined to run, a range of AWS leaders, notably from the Conservative Peoples Party (SKL) faction, have been openly resisting his nomination and urging instead the candidacy of current parliamentary speaker Maciej Plazynski. Although that attempt now looks to be forlorn, Krzaklewski's candidacy continues to be contested.
Krzaklewski's solution, now openly discussed in Warsaw, is to effect a major government reshuffle, bringing in many of the leaders of the political parties who feel disaffected by their perceived marginalization within the AWS political coalition. Although no names for dismissal have been made explicit, it is known that the SKL leader, Jan Maria Rokita, was offered a deputy premiership by Krzaklewski, and that ZChN leader Marian Pilka is also being talked of as a future minister.
It is a sign of the nature of the relationship between Krzaklewski and Prime Minister Jerzy Buzek that the latter was not forewarned of Krzaklewski's campaign speech, and was to put it mildly surprised to learn that his cabinet was about to change. Although Krzaklewski was forced to publicly backtrack, it is known that last week, he was indeed handing out cabinet posts to a range of senior politicians. Part of Buzek's problem in recent weeks has been his increasing isolation and dependence on an informal "kitchen cabinet" of advisers, rather than his formal staff at the Prime Minister's Chancellery, following a spate of senior resignations a month ago. Now that may change, as rumor has it that shortly the prime minister's real eminence grise the current head of the Health Insurance Supervision Office, Teresa Kaminska may soon become the new formal head of Buzek's political cabinet. Although merely a formalization of her existing power, the official appointment may allow the prime minister to at least get a grip on his immediate staff and not allow himself to be so publicly shown playing second fiddle to Krzaklewski.
After a period of internal turmoil, it looks as though AWS leaders are realizing that much work needs to be done both in government and electoral campaigning. The time for jaw-jaw seems to be over: it remains to be seen whether these maneuvers will be enough to win the war-war.
Marek Matraszek is the Warsaw director of CEC Government Relations. He can be e-mailed at director@cec.com.pl
