Chief economist believes Finance Ministry's GDP growth predictions too low

Janusz Jankowiak, the chief economist at BRE Bank, considers the Finance Ministry's forecast of 1.0% GDP growth next year to be too low and based on a contentious assumption that the savings rate, and consequently domestic demand, would not change in the next year. In its budget for 2002, the Finance Ministry will assume a GDP growth of 1.0%, and not 1.2% to 1.5% as was forecast previously by Finance Minister Marek Belka. Other sources quoted by Gazeta Wyborcza estimate next year's economic growth at some 1.4%. The conservative assumptions for next year's budget do not include a possible border-crossing fee, which would add some zl.1.2 billion to the government's coffers, nor a 5% import tax, the introduction of which is yet to be decided. (Gazeta Wyborcza, p. 22) M.T.