During the peak of the fourth wave, we will have up to 30,000 Covid-19 cases a day: experts
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In mid-September, the number of Covid-19 infections in Poland will probably amount to 500-600 people a day. And at the end of November, it may even reach over 30,000, according to the calculations of scientists from the Wrocław University of Technology.
The dynamics of coronavirus infections in Poland are currently very similar to that of a year ago. This means that we will soon face large spikes in infections. The fourth wave of the pandemic is expected to peak in the fall.
These are the results of calculations based on the MOCOS (Modeling Coronavirus Spread) mathematical model. It was prepared by the team of prof. Tyll Krüger from the Wrocław University of Technology. What matters in their model is how the virus spreads in social networks. It thus maps the structure of households and connections between 38 million Poles.
Prof. Tyll Krüger warns that the number of deaths may be very high and may even reach 30,000-40,000 during the approaching wave. These numbers are so large because despite the fact that 48 percent of the population in Poland is already vaccinated, due to the fact that the virus in the Delta variant is more or less twice as contagious as the previous variants. This essentially eliminates the decrease in infections due to acquired immunity, indicates a scientist from the Wrocław University of Technology.
According to his estimates, in total in Poland, resistance to the coronavirus has acquired about 60 percent of people. However, not all vaccinated people and convalescents are fully protected against the coronavirus. It depends primarily on their health. It is probably about 80 percent of fully resistant out of vaccinated or convalescent people.
