Elections breathe new life into sliding market
"The surprise was in the small rise before (the election)," said Piotr Marczewski, broker with Amerbank's Amerbrokers.
The exchange bounced back toward the end of last week after a three-day slide, with the all-share WIG index closing at 8193 points last Friday, up 4.4% on the week, and volumes surging ahead, up 60% at nearly zl. 50 million ($20.4 million). There was no reason for such a rise, Marczewski said. Nothing had been decided before the Sunday nationwide vote, he added.
As far as the second round of the election goes, President Lech Walesa would have a more positive effect on the market than Aleksander Kwasniewski of the Democratic Left Alliance, explained Marczewski.
"(There is) a kind of risk connected with his (Kwasniewski's) election," he said. But if Kwasniewski is elected, it won't cause a huge outflow of money from the market. "Kwasniewski won't be a tragedy," Marczewski said.
For the moment, analysts said that the market is making clear sideways movements, and low share prices make shopping on the exchange a good buying opportunity, especially for investors looking to the long term.
The distribution of shares certificates in the National Investment Funds (NIFs) later this month may cause an outflow of money from the market, Marczewski said, as investors direct their investments toward shares in the NIFs.
The NIF certificate share price is zl. 20 ($8) and will be of great interest to domestic investors as well, Marczewski said. "It's a good time for people who want to make good investments in the longterm," he said.
Analysts said they expect any significant upswing on the exchange in the upcoming weeks to come from investor interest in large companies in the transport and construction sectors.
Tiremakers Debica and Stomil Olsztyn and cement maker Gorazdze are the companies which will make the biggest waves, Marczewski said. The Privatization Ministry is planning to sell off the state treasury's stakes in Debica and Stomil Olsztyn later this month or in early December. Tire producers Goodyear and Michelin are said to be interested in strategic stakes in the companies.
Construction company KPBP Bick led the pack of weekly gainers, with share prices up 25% on the week. The stock closed at zl. 13 ($5.3) last Friday, a jump of 72% from its first listing. Investors "are finding new subjects to speculate on," said Miroslaw Andrysiak, analyst at PKO BP brokerage house. Also, low liquidity of company shares pushes the price up, Andrysiak said.
Two banks were the exchange's other high achievers last week. Petrobank was up 9%, and Bank Slaski was up nearly 10%. Banks on the exchange are bringing in new products and new instruments as they brace themselves for more foreign competition on the market, he said.
Petrobank is 40% owned by state oil company Centrala Produktow Naftowych (CPN), which analysts say makes Petrobank a safe bet.
The exchange bounced back toward the end of last week after a three-day slide, with the all-share WIG index closing at 8193 points last Friday, up 4.4% on the week, and volumes surging ahead, up 60% at nearly zl. 50 million ($20.4 million). There was no reason for such a rise, Marczewski said. Nothing had been decided before the Sunday nationwide vote, he added.
As far as the second round of the election goes, President Lech Walesa would have a more positive effect on the market than Aleksander Kwasniewski of the Democratic Left Alliance, explained Marczewski.
"(There is) a kind of risk connected with his (Kwasniewski's) election," he said. But if Kwasniewski is elected, it won't cause a huge outflow of money from the market. "Kwasniewski won't be a tragedy," Marczewski said.
For the moment, analysts said that the market is making clear sideways movements, and low share prices make shopping on the exchange a good buying opportunity, especially for investors looking to the long term.
The distribution of shares certificates in the National Investment Funds (NIFs) later this month may cause an outflow of money from the market, Marczewski said, as investors direct their investments toward shares in the NIFs.
The NIF certificate share price is zl. 20 ($8) and will be of great interest to domestic investors as well, Marczewski said. "It's a good time for people who want to make good investments in the longterm," he said.
Analysts said they expect any significant upswing on the exchange in the upcoming weeks to come from investor interest in large companies in the transport and construction sectors.
Tiremakers Debica and Stomil Olsztyn and cement maker Gorazdze are the companies which will make the biggest waves, Marczewski said. The Privatization Ministry is planning to sell off the state treasury's stakes in Debica and Stomil Olsztyn later this month or in early December. Tire producers Goodyear and Michelin are said to be interested in strategic stakes in the companies.
Construction company KPBP Bick led the pack of weekly gainers, with share prices up 25% on the week. The stock closed at zl. 13 ($5.3) last Friday, a jump of 72% from its first listing. Investors "are finding new subjects to speculate on," said Miroslaw Andrysiak, analyst at PKO BP brokerage house. Also, low liquidity of company shares pushes the price up, Andrysiak said.
Two banks were the exchange's other high achievers last week. Petrobank was up 9%, and Bank Slaski was up nearly 10%. Banks on the exchange are bringing in new products and new instruments as they brace themselves for more foreign competition on the market, he said.
Petrobank is 40% owned by state oil company Centrala Produktow Naftowych (CPN), which analysts say makes Petrobank a safe bet.
