Escaping Russia's shadow
Prime Minister Jerzy Buzek and his Norwegian counterpart Jens Stoltenberg signed an agreement last week for the construction of a natural gas pipeline with an expected capacity of 5 billion cubic meters. If the deal goes through, the gas could start flowing as early as 2004, thereby breaking Russia's near monopoly on the supply of natural gas to Poland.
"Poland has been waiting 10 years to find a stable alternative source of gas (that would enhance this country's energy independence)," Buzek said. For years, Russia has been the country's nearly exclusive gas supplier. In 1996 the post-communist Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) government allowed a controversial agreement giving the Russian Gazprom the right to provide 250 billion cubic meters of gas for 25 years. Such dependence on Russian supplies has unnerved political strategists concerned with national security, and not without reason. In January 1992, Russia unexpectedly turned off the taps on the pipelines supplying Poland, and had to be persuaded to turn them back on. Gazprom's state-sanctioned policy has undoubtedly been an important element of Russian geopolitics.
President Aleksander Kwasniewski's recent visit to Moscow proved that Russian gas politics might have an unexpected ally. He spoke to President Vladimir Putin and Russian entrepreneurs at the Polish-Russian Business Forum about Gazprom's plan for another artery of the Yamal pipeline that would run through Poland and Slovakia, but sidestep Ukraine. At a time when Gazprom President Rem Wiachiriew doesn't deny that the pipeline would be a tool for economic pressure on Ukraine, Kwasniewski said the issue "has more of an economic than political character and that eventually economic factors will decide." If Poland, which claims to support an independent Ukraine, agrees with Gazprom's plans, the result could be Ukraine slipping further back into Russia's embrace. A Ukraine deprived of gas transfer fees could suffer a serious financial meltdown, and Poland could become its competitor rather than ally.
While Kwasniewski's adviser, Stanislaw Ciosek, said the president didn't make any promises concerning the pipeline, there are reasons to worry otherwise. Kwasniewski's delegation included Aleksander Gudzowaty, the head of Bartimpex, a company that has strong business ties with Gazprom. Bartimpex owns Gas Trading, a shareholder of EuRoPol Gaz, which was established in September 1993 to build and operate the Yamal pipeline. No wonder then that Kwasniewski's comments in Moscow raised a few hackles back home. The current government is likely to block Gazprom's plans to sidestep Ukraine in the name of strategic Polish interests. But Russia can wait. The days of Buzek's government are numbered, and SLD leaders are already preparing for their return to power.
