Et tu, Brute?
With the immediate sensations of the last political crisis over, and the new ministers in Prime Minister Jerzy Buzek's minority cabinet settling into their jobs, it is time to stand back and take stock of the consequences of the events of the last few weeks for the two men who were the key players in the drama, and who have dominated Polish politics over the last three years: Solidarity Election Action (AWS) leader Marian Krzaklewski, and the leader of the Freedom Union (UW) and former Finance Minister Leszek Balcerowicz. For both men, time may tell that this political crisis was the beginning of the end of their respective political careers.
Take Krzaklewski. It is no secret that for some time, his authority within AWS has been both eroded and under attack. Many senior AWS politicians, especially those associated with the political parties that make up the AWS alliance, have blamed Krzaklewski for the catastrophic plunge in its opinion poll ratings, citing his leadership style and failure to listen to criticism of his political tactics. The clearest evidence for this was the all-too-public resistance within AWS to Krzaklewski's presidential candidacy. Although the AWS leadership managed to push through his nomination as official AWS candidate last week, it was only after many AWS leaders made clear their preference for Maciej Plazynski, the current speaker of Parliament.
In terms of the recent governmental crisis, many AWS politicians are blaming Krzaklewski personally for the collapse of the coalition. They accuse Krzaklewski of making two basic mistakes: not taking into account the pressure Balcerowicz was under within the UW, and believing until the bitter end that the UW position was a bluff. By submitting his own candidature for prime minister, when he knew that the UW was opposed to it, Krzaklewski played right into the hands of the anti-AWS faction inside the UW, and allowed them to force Balcerowicz into leaving the government.
The first person to publicly turn his back on Krzaklewski was Buzek himself, who over the last two-and-a-half years has been universally seen as Krzaklewski's puppet. Yet immediately after the UW left the government, and exploiting the constitutional peculiarity that his government cannot now be overthrown, Buzek ignored Krzaklewski and his entourage and made a series of ministerial nominations on his own account. Now the word from the prime minster's chancellery is that Krzaklewski cuts little ice in the big decisions.
Although it's too early to stage an open revolt against Krzaklewski inside AWS, many AWS politicians are quietly hoping that their leader will fail miserably in the coming presidential elections, due in October. A disastrous showing by Krzaklewski which looks probable will be the signal to attempt a definitive removal. Already, the heat is being turned on Krzaklewski's trusted lieutenants, such as Piotr Zak and Kazimierz Janiak. Greatly disliked as self-inflated union hacks, there was much glee among their enemies at recent press stories suggesting corrupt links between Zak and one of Poland's richest businessmen, Ryszard Krauze of Prokom. As a result, it is likely that Zak will lose his expected role as head of Krzaklewski's presidential campaign.
Yet Krzaklewski is not the only political leader to go under fire from within his own party: that fate has also befallen Balcerowicz. Although a strong minister of finance, Balcerowicz's position as UW leader has always been more tenuous. Recall that he became UW leader only because the UW was desperate to hire a manager that could rescue the party from the doldrums it was in in the mid-1990s.
One reason why Balcerowicz was keen to keep the coalition together was that he realized that being out of office made him much more vulnerable to attack from his party enemies. Indeed, that is exactly what has happened; over the last week, albeit subtly, some UW politicians have hinted that it might be time for him to go. How to effect such a coup? Simple: take a leaf from the AWS book, and encourage Balcerowicz to run for president. Balcerowicz's enemies are now pushing him into the contest, sure in the knowledge that failure to beat President Aleksander Kwasniewski will be the signal to remove him.
The anti-Balcerowicz faction in the UW is being encouraged in its plotting by the post-communist opposition Democratic Left Alliance (SLD). Last week, several SLD leaders made it clear that they might just contemplate a coalition with the UW after the next elections, on one condition: that such a government would not include Balcerowicz.
The truth is that although they were often at loggerheads, both Balcerowicz and Krzaklewski needed each other. In a joint AWS-UW government, it was impossible for an anti-Balcerowicz movement to openly develop inside the UW, and Krzaklewski could still claim political success. Now that the UW and AWS are apart, their respective leaders are rapidly discovering that the knives are out. The only question remains which of their formerly trusted acolytes will be the first to plunge in the blade and when.
Marek Matraszek is the Warsaw director of CEC Government Relations. He can be e-mailed at director@cec.com.pl
