EU membership could be delayed until 2005

The contentious issue of direct payments to farmers could result in the European Union delaying expansion until 2005, analysts and opposition politicians said last week. "A couple of the challenges ahead make us believe it's safer to say 'wait,' " said Moritz Schularick, an economist at Deutsche Bank. "There are many people who say (the accession process) is more or less over. That's a very nice idea, but not a realistic roadmap." Adam Bielan, a Law and Justice (PiS) MP and a member of the Sejm's European Committee, was also pessimistic that the EU would accept up to 10 new members as planned on Jan. 1, 2004. "Yes, I am afraid so, after some of the statements from Brussels," he said. The EU announced last week that it would not release its official position on the issue of agricultural subsidies until November - leaving less than two months to wrap up talks on one of the most politically and economically sensitive areas of negotiation. Candidate countries must conclude negotiations by the end of this year to enter the bloc in 2004. Observers warn that the disagreement between the EU and accession countries over the issue of direct payments to farmers - projected to start at just 25% of the amount allotted to current member states under the common agricultural policy (CAP) - could derail the enlargement process.

Delaying expansion would have financial costs for Poland's budget and political costs for the Democratic Left Alliance (SLD)-led government. The next general elections are scheduled for 2005. "If we're talking 2005, we're talking 12-18 months later (than expected)," Bielan said. "That means a loss of a lot of money." Poland would receive up to ?500 million ($470 million) in its first year as a member, most of which would be earmarked for infrastructure development, such as highways, Bielan said. On the political front, any delays would feed Euroskeptic parties. "Some radical parties are now stronger in Poland than they were in the last election," Bielan said. "(They) could almost win the (2005) election." Poland still needs to conclude negotiations in the areas of agriculture, competition, regional policy and EU budgetary contributions. On top of that, a public referendum on joining the EU is scheduled for next year. According to a recent poll by the Public Opinion Research Center (CBOS), about two-thirds of Poles favor accession to the EU. That support could change if the economy does not pick up and if Poland is unable to secure good terms for membership in the remaining areas of negotiation, economists said. - Staff report