Europe or EU-rope
In a country where politicians live by opinion polls, last week's publication of the result of a survey that showed that fewer than half of Poles support the entry of Poland into the European Union (EU) caused considerable shock waves, as well as provoked a renewed political debate, this time not just about why the downturn, but even into the substance of Poland's membership.
The results of the poll indeed reflected a worrying trend that has become increasingly evident over the last couple of years. At the beginning of the 1990s, when Poles were asked the same question, the response was almost unanimous: Of course, Poland should join the EU.
In itself, however, that position was more a reflection of the general conflation of the concept of "the West" with that of the EU. Moving away from communism and the Soviet orbit, in most people's eyes, meant joining "Brussels." But as the reality of EU membership draws closer, and the more the details of the interminable negotiations that Poland has undertaken become clear, the lower the support. And also paradoxically, the more energy is expended into promoting EU membership by the government and by Brussels itself, the more resistance there seems to be. Of course, there needs to be more time to see whether this trend can be reversed. But many politicians here are beginning to feel that it can only get worse, not better, as the implications of EU membership trickle down main street.
On the right of Polish politics, there have been two sorts of reactions. The most extreme has been for some rightists to seize on this information as a signal that there is an issue emerging that may well reshape Polish politics, at least in the medium term. That is behind the creation recently of the so-called Polish Alliance, a political party made up of ex-Solidarity Election Action (AWS) MPs, and supporters of the Catholic Radio Maryja station. The Polish Alliance openly declares itself against EU membership on principle, arguing that joining the EU will mean the end of Polish independence, and an opening of the floodgates for Western liberalism. Although most observers are skeptical of a single-issue party surviving long in the mire of Polish politics, the alliance may split the right-wing vote in the next election, and possibly have a major impact on any future referendum to be held on EU membership.
Other right-wing parties were more cautious in responding to the opinion poll results, although the most vocal in scoring points was the Christian-National Union (ZChN) faction within AWS, which argued that the poll reflected a lack of confidence by the public in the ability of government negotiations to "reflect the national interest." That in turn reflects the view among many rightists that the government has allowed EU negotiations to be run by politicians and officials who have "gone native" as far as Brussels is concerned.
The ZChN have been spoiling for a fight ever since their party member, Ryszard Czarnecki, was sacked by Prime Minister Jerzy Buzek as head of the European Integration Office last year, and their anger was scarcely containable a couple of weeks ago when they learned that the supervision of the office was to be transferred to the Foreign Affairs Ministry. Foreign Minister Bronislaw Geremek is loathed within the ZChN faction of AWS for his openly pro-European attitudes.
For members of the opposition, the poll results were an ideal opportunity to score points off the government, which was accused by the Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) of having failed to do what it could in terms of informing the public about the benefits of EU expansion. Both SLD leader Leszek Miller, as well as President Aleksander Kwasniewski blamed poor government communication strategies for the poll results. Yet the truth is that Buzek's government has invested heavily in EU-promotion activities, and hardly a day goes by without the Prime Minister and other senior government officials saying what they can in support of the EU. That is a contrast to other Central European countries like the Czech Republic and Hungary, where former Prime Minister Vaclav Klaus, and Prime Minister Victor Orban respectively have made no secret of their Euro-scepticism.
This spectrum reflects the fundamental fact that politicians still insist on using the symbol of the EU as a political football in opposition to each other, rather than having a rational political debate about the real issues at stake over Polish membership in the European Union.
As long as that debate does not take place, and the public is subjected to a political spectacle which shows that even the political class does not want to discuss the real dilemmas of membership, no wonder the poll results are what they are. All the indications are that unless matters change, in the next few years Polish political leaders will be faced with the real prospect that a pro-European referendum would be lost.
Marek Matraszek is the Warsaw Director of CEC Government Relations. He can be e-mailed on director@cec.com.pl
