Exports improve to give hope of economic recovery this year or next

Poland's current account deficit stood at just $484 million in May, as exports increased 6.9% year-on-year, while imports shrank by 6.4%. Analysts now view exports as the main engine which will pull the economy out of stagnation later this year or in 2003. "Although demand in the EU is still fairly weak, Polish goods can compete with lower prices," claimed Bank Pekao S.A. analyst Jacek Wisniewski. Poor import figures show, meanwhile, that consumer and investment demand is not picking up in Poland and analysts believe that the country's relatively good current account status is u nlikely to change in the near future. Bank PKO BP economist Lukasz Tarnawa expects the current account gap to reach no more than 4.2%-4.3% of GDP at the end of the year, up from the present level of 4.0%. (Gazeta Wyborcza, June 29-30, p.25) T.J.