Forza Polonia
Polish television viewers were treated to a powerful image last week. A massive sports hall in Gdansk, traditionally the place for Solidarity union rallies, was filled to the rafters not by union activists but by thousands of ordinary Poles, cheering on the leaders of a political movement created only a week before. At a time when a Polish political party has trouble filling up the local fleapit, the leaders of the Citizens' Platform as the new political movement headed by Andrzej Olechowski, Donald Tusk and Maciej Plazynski is called must have felt that they were on to a good thing. The question they (and all other observers) are asking themselves is, can it last?
Not surprisingly, many observers are belittling the initiative as a flash in the pan. There are two main categories of these critics.
First, the existing leaders of both Solidarity Election Action (AWS) and the Freedom Union (UW) who rightly see the movement as a threat to their carefully laid election plans. AWS wished to rebuild the party as the only credible alternative to the Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) and the only major center-right force. UW wanted to make a play for being in a position (perhaps after the next elections) to form a government together with SLD. A popular force taking votes from both AWS and UW would prevent these scenarios from happening.
The second category of critics consists of elements in the Polish media, especially the main center-left daily, Gazeta Wyborcza. In an editorial tactic bizarrely reminiscent of the old communist days, that paper's editors have steadfastly ignored the Citizens' Platform in line with the philosophy "if we don't report it, it ain't happening." The critics' main line of argument is that the Platform is saying nothing that has not already been said by different parties, and that its leaders lack credibility, having turned against their former party colleagues to whom they owe their careers.
When the combined media and political establishments panic (as they publicly have), that's a signal that something important is going on. Already the first national opinion polls are being generated that show the Platform garnering more than 20% support nationwide. Interestingly, the emergence of the Platform comes at the same time that Parliament has voted through an amendment to the national electoral law, making it more difficult for large parties like the SLD to gain overall majorities, instead helping medium-sized parties like the Platform. Until now, the common view had been that SLD head Leszek Miller was a shoo-in as the next prime minister. Yet if these poll numbers are maintained, that may not be so certain.
So then, what are the prospects of the Platform maintaining its momentum? What is interesting about the whole initiative is that its leaders are deliberately setting themselves up as anti-establishment players, and tapping into the latent hostility of ordinary Poles who perceive the establishment as being ossified and increasingly corrupt. Although a large number of voters want to swap AWS for SLD, an even greater number around 50% is saying that they do not want to vote at all because of a sense of alienation from the political system. In some ways, the Platform's message echoes the themes of other political movements that have spread across Europe in recent years, such as Forza Italia in Italy, the Haider movement in Austria, and now the political movement led by Robert Fico in Slovakia. There is of course no comparison between these movements and the Platform in terms of policies, but the streak of anti-establishment populism is the same.
In the case of the Platform, the policies are a refreshing combination of free-market (flat tax and flexible labor markets) and conservative ideas. Significantly, the Platform is playing heavily on the theme of cleaning up Polish politics and getting rid of corruption-prone parties' overbearing influence in the media and economy. Their proposals of a first-past-the-post voting system, direct elections of town mayors, and party finance reform are all specific ideas that would get those goals reached and have clearly touched a chord among voters
What is significant is that the Platform is led by those politicians who are individually hugely popular in the country, and who have achieved their status largely independently of the traditional party apparatus. Olechowski came second in the presidential elections last year. Tusk and Plazynski gained huge individual votes in the parliamentary elections three years ago in their constituencies. Pawel Piskorski current mayor of Warsaw has built up a celebrity-style following among the capital's youth. All four are potential candidates for the presidency in 2005, and any one of them could win it if they were to run. So it is not surprising that their public comments show a complete disdain and disregard for the established party players. The Platform leaders have proved that to be successful in politics, parties are not necessary.
Inevitably, after the elections whatever the result the Platform will consolidate into a normal political party, and it will certainly face the same paradoxes and challenges that other anti-establishment parties have faced in Europe once they enter the much-reviled establishment. But in the interim, don't write off the Platform and its leaders you'll be hearing a lot more from them in the coming weeks and months.
Marek Matraszek is the Warsaw director of CEC Government Relations. He can be e-mailed at director@cec.com.pl
