GDP growth just 1.5% according to think-tank's gloomy economic forecast

Head of the Government Center for Strategic Studies (RCSS) Jerzy Kropiwnicki has presented the center's forecasts for the domestic economy. According to the RCSS, GDP growth will probably be no higher than 1.5% in both 2001 and 2002. Should the Cabinet fail to deal with the negative economic trends and the Monetary Policy Council (RPP) continue to try and slow the economy, then Kropiwnicki concludes, "0% growth in 2002 would be considered a success and a 20% unemployment rate, an unattainable dream." However, the RCSS also sketched a more optimistic scenario, with the RPP lowering interest rates by 4%, a relatively weak zloty, and the effective promotion of Poland on foreign markets, in which case GDP growth could be as high as 4%. Kropiwnicki also said he is concerned about the falling domestic demand, and the decline in the level of investment in particular, which will result in the situation on the labor market remaining bad. (Gazeta Wyborcza, p. 26) M.K.