GDP up 4.1% in 2000, below predictions; 3% - 4% growth forecast for 2001

Although Poland's gross GDP grew by 4.1% last year for the second year in a row, that figure fell short of predictions as high as 4.4 last year, according to figures made public on Friday by the Central Statistical Office (GUS).Analysts pinpointed the start of an economic slowdown in the middle of last year, as domestic demand dropped as the result of tightened monetary policy, particularly high interest rates, intended to lower inflation. Domestic demand thus reached only a scant 2.8% for the year as a whole. The economy will continue to cool down throughout the year, according to Finance Minister adviser Prof. Stanislaw Gomulka, who predicted “Throughout 2001 I foresee GDP growth within a range of 3%-4%, although the state budget assumes 4.5% growth.” Other analysts are equally pessimistic about short-term growth in the face of the sustained monetary controls. “It's difficult to see how growth could recover in the first months of this year from an estimated 2.3 % in the fourth quarter, as policy remained unchanged,” notes BRE Bank economist Piotr Chwiejczak. (Reuters; Prawo i Gospodarka, Jan. 27-28, pp. 1,3)