Groundhog days
The whiff of indecision filled the air west of Warsaw last week as European Union (EU) politicians once again debated about new members, and specifically Poland, joining the club.
While EU politicians sang platitudes about Poland's imminent accession and the desirability to bring it into the bosom of Europe, the issue reminded many of the film "Groundhog Day," where the unfortunate hero is forced to relive the same day over and over again.
At one point, Eurocrats talked about how crucial Poland's accession was for the enlargement program. U.K. Premier Tony Blair spoke grandly of the necessity for early membership, implying that this could happen as soon as 2003. Meanwhile, Gunter Verheugen, the EU commissioner on enlargement, said it was realistic for new member states to join as early as 2003.
But after this euphoria about the expanding trade bloc and speeches about a European superstate stretching from the Seine to the Wistula, realism once again dug in along European political faultlines.
Tony Blair fled back to London and the running sore of euro membership as well as his flagging support in British opinion polls.
Elsewhere, amnesia had EU officials speaking of unrealistic timetables; 2005 at the earliest; enlargement for some countries by 2003 but not Poland, etc. Even Verheugen added a caveat that there were no guarantees that anything would happen in 2003.
So it's not surprising that Poles are a little cautious of visiting EU politicians spouting forth about accession issues only to conveniently forget them when they return home.
One government analyst said last week that the real problem was not Poland, which has ongoing negotiations over accession, but the EU itself there's no consensus over how to deal with new members in Central and Eastern Europe.
Granted there are still a brace of issues that have to be resolved here: agricultural reform remains an obstacle and environmental issues are also outstanding. But with Denmark's recent rejection of the euro, the EU itself now seems divided into two groups: those in euroland and those outside it. The real debate should be that Poland is inevitably going to join, but in what capacity: inside or outside euroland?
Neither in Brussels nor Warsaw has this subject been sufficiently talked about. Poland's adoption of the euro will have enormous consequences for the country's economy. For officials to talk solely about union in 2003 is simply doing the country a disservice. Membership is a complex issue and one that has to be debated pragmatically.
Most Poles want results, but whenever an EU politician talks about grandiose visions for the future it all sounds oddly familiar.
