GUS: Trade deficit growing, unemployment increasing but inflation dropping

The Central Statistical Office (GUS) released trade, unemployment and food price data yesterday. According to GUS, Poland's trade deficit in the first half amounted to $8.8 billion against $8.3 billion in the corresponding period last year. Exports rose to over $14.7 billion in the first half; however, the ever increasing imports adversely impacted on the country's trade balance. GUS experts are confident that reviving exports to the CIS provides hope. Meanwhile, the unemployment figures for July increased from 13.5% in June to 13.7%. Analysts are expecting unemployment to improve in coming months. Also the latest data on the price of food and non-alcoholic beverages shows a decrease of 0.7% in the first half of August. According to Andrzej Bratkowski, of the Social Economic Analysis Center (CASE), the year-on-year inflation could have fallen to 11.3% after July. Mateusz Szczurek of ING Barings, on the other hand, believes inflation could have fallen below 11%. Analysts say the Monetary Policy Council (RPP) was likely to increase rates even if inflation starts easing in annual terms from August to curb inflation expectations and upward pressure on wages. (Puls Biznesu, page 6, Parkiet, page 1, Reuters)