Hello, goodbye
It was a long time coming, but last week what many Polish politicians had long thought was impossible the effective resignation of Marian Krzaklewski as leader of the ruling Solidarity Election Action (AWS) movement seemed to have happened. At the 13th Congress of the Solidarity Trade Union, Krzaklewski declared that he would step down from his post as of Feb. 1, regardless of whether by that date AWS had managed to form a single federation or party in place of the current informal alliance of dozens of parties and smaller political grouplets. But is Krzaklewski's time truly up?
It is true that Krzaklewski's power inside AWS has been declining for some time, despite the fact that he holds a multiplicity of titular functions that theoretically should allow him to wield untrammeled power inside the movement: honorary head of the AWS Social Movement (RS AWS) party, head of the AWS parliamentary caucus, chairman of the AWS coalition movement, and head of the Solidarity trade union. Yet these institutions are by no means reliable instruments of power, since each is divided internally between Krzaklewski's supporters and enemies. Take the AWS coalition in particular: over the last month, this has effectively split in two with one half now controlled by Krzaklewski's arch rival, parliamentary speaker Maciej Plazynski, and formally instituted as the so-called AWS Federation, made up of two constituent parties of AWS proper. The federation has taken to boycotting meetings of the AWS leadership and looks likely to form its own parliamentary caucus soon.
Apart from AWS and the caucus itself, the tide is turning against Krzaklewski in his own party and union. Three key figures are gunning for Krzaklewski: Plazynski, former Deputy Prime Minister Janusz Tomaszewski, and even Prime Minister Jerzy Buzek, who despite public protestations of loyalty to Krzaklewski has marginalized him from governmental decision making in the last six months. And last week's congress showed that a substantial number of Solidarity members are now looking beyond Krzaklewski for leadership.
The rising opposition to Krzaklewski is both a cause and an effect of his declining influence, triggered by the two-year-long slide of AWS in the opinion polls and compounded by Krzaklewski's own miserable performance in the recent presidential elections.
In turn, Krzaklewski's stubbornness in refusing to recognize defeat and resign honorably immediately after the elections led to further frustrations among AWS politicians, to the extent that a number of them are effectively forming a new political movement outside of AWS. For them, Krzaklewski's final capitulation is too little, too late, and seemingly has had no effect on their decision to go it alone.
The reason why AWS seems to be heading toward a split despite Krzaklewski's belated gesture is that the splitters do not believe Krzaklewski will go for good. After all, they argue, Krzaklewski's political trademark in the past has been his ability to wield huge political influence despite having no constitutional title to do so, such as during the first two years of the Buzek government when, despite not even being in the Cabinet, he managed to personally pull the strings of most of the government's ministers. Furthermore, despite no longer being head of AWS, Krzaklewski has made it clear that he has no intention of stepping down as head of the caucus, and will of course continue to be head of the Solidarity trade union, which confirmed him as its leader during its congress.
It is not only the role of Krzaklewski but also the role of the Solidarity trade union in the future of the right that is at stake in this current battle. Those who have split from Krzaklewski believe that the time when the Solidarity trade union had the ability to dominate the right is coming to an end, and that if the Polish right is to evolve into a Western-style free market force, the tactical alliance with unionists must terminate.
Against this view, however, are not only Krzaklewski and his allies, but also non-union politicians, who while professing no love for the union, doubt that it can be excluded from public life, and argue that overall Solidarity has protected reforms, not sabotaged them.
There will yet be much internal maneuvering inside what is still nominally one AWS movement, but which increasingly looks as though it is heading toward a permanent split. One opportunity might be for the two sides thereafter to form a political alliance on the lines of Germany's CDU/CSU coalition. Whatever the future course of events, one thing is clear: Krzaklewski, or at least the Solidarity trade union, will remain part of the game.
Marek Matraszek is the Warsaw director of CEC Government Relations. He can be e-mailed at director@cec.com.pl
