Hot stocks overshadow rate hikes
The anticipated interest rate rise Wednesday pushed stock prices slightly above pre-announcement levels, but global IT buying sprees weighed heavier on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE), analysts said.
After intense trading Thursday and Friday, the IT-heavy TechWIG index ended the week up 6.64% at 1,696.5 points with impressive gains recorded by Optimus, ComArch and Computerland.
The broad-market WIG index, thanks to the TechWIG's performance, ended the week up 1.14% at 18,614.2 points, although volume was down 1.6% to zl. 519.8 million.
The hi-tech trading was driven by small, speculative investors who could have caused the volatile index to move in the opposite direction, said Peter Dudzinski, a broker with Citibrokerage. "This is a symbol that the growth might be slightly dangerous," he said. In Poland, he said, the price jumps have no logic behind them.
On Friday alone, computer and IT firm Optimus logged a 12.7% gain, systems integrator ComArch 14.5% and software producer Computerland 9%, Dudzinski said.
The three companies ended the week up 8.09%, 12.24% and 8.11% at zl. 187, zl. 165 and zl. 120, respectively.
Even telephone monopolist Telekomunikacja Polska (TPSA), after losing 30% since it sold a 35% stake to France Telecom at the end of July, gained 2.64% on the week, closing at zl. 27.20 per share. Dudzinksi believes the stock hit rock bottom recently and expects it to settle in the zl. 28-zl. 30 range in the near future, despite news that five UMTS licenses, of which one is reserved for TPSA, will go for no less than O750 million each.
Market activity this week could push the WIG to 20,000-21,000 points, Dudzinski said, especially if the IT-buying trend is confirmed by the involvement of larger players such as pension and investment funds. If it doesn't happen, it's only more proof the movement was highly speculative.
Bank Slaski ended the week at zl. 210, up 2.44%. The bank, which announced in July its intention to integrate its operations with its main shareholder, ING Bank, will probably make a share issue aimed at the Dutch bank, according to a Puls Biznesu report last Friday.
"There are a few possible variants of how the banks can integrate their operations, but almost everyone expects this one," said Andrzej Powierza, an analyst at Wood & Co. Bank Slaski will absorb the operations of ING's local branch, ING Barings Warsaw, and in return Slaski will make a share issue aimed at ING Bank only. ING Barings Warsaw only deals with corporate banking in Poland, while Slaski has a well-developed retail chain. ING Bank owns 54.98% of Slaski.
"The most likely avenue will be Bank Slaski taking over ING's Warsaw operations," said Grzegorz Zawada, an analyst at Erste Securities Polska. He cited the example of Citibank taking over Bank Handlowy. From the capital market point of view, the consolidation of the two companies which of them is traded on the stock exchange and which isn't is difficult. "I think that on the Polish market the Bank Slaski brand is more strongly rooted than ING's," he said.
Zawada added that there were plenty of reasons for Slaski to take over ING Baring's banking operations. "It's easier to manage one bank than two, and it increases their effectiveness from the cost point of view," he said. "And besides, taking over ING Barings' banking operations will round out Slaski's banking service portfolio."
According to Zawada, a share issue aimed at ING Bank will not be welcome news for minority shareholders, whose stakes will decrease.
